Iran's Counterrevolution & the Future of the Greater Middle East | Kamran Bokhari

Jan 19, 2026

A geopolitical analyst delves into Iran's tumultuous history, from early 20th-century reforms to the 1979 Islamic Revolution. The evolution of the IRGC is laid bare, revealing its rise to power and control over Iran's economy. The recent nationwide protests are dissected, highlighting their unique nature and the implications for a weakened IRGC facing internal strife and Israeli actions. This captivating discussion sheds light on Iran's present challenges and the broader geopolitical landscape of the Middle East.

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INSIGHT

IRGC Became A Parallel, Corrupt Power

The IRGC evolved from an ideological militia into a parallel state controlling vast economic and security sectors.
That growth made the IRGC corrupt, internally divided, and central to understanding Iran's political stability.

INSIGHT

Protests Expose Regime Weakness

Recent protests reveal deeper regime weakness and new dynamics compared with past uprisings.
Targeted strikes on IRGC proxies and commanders have eroded its capacity to protect citizens and project power.

INSIGHT

History Shapes Today's Unrest

Iran's 20th-century history—from the constitutional revolution to 1979—frames contemporary grievances and elite rivalries.
Understanding that arc is essential to forecasting pathways from managed decay to chaos or intervention.

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Episode 459 of Hidden Forces is the twelfth episode in the Hundred Year Pivot podcast series. In it, Demetri Kofinas and Grant Williams speak with Kamran Bokhari, a strategic forecaster and geopolitical analyst who specializes on the Middle Eastern and Eurasia, about Iran's nationwide protests, what they reveal about the power and stability of the Iranian regime, and what the state of Iranian affairs portends for Iran's future, the region's geopolitics, and the strategic considerations and objectives of the United States.

The conversation's opening hour traces Iran's modern formation—beginning in the early 1900s with the Constitutional Revolution, moving through the 1953 coup and the Shah's rule, and culminating in the 1979 Islamic Revolution and its aftermath.

Kamran walks the audience through the evolution of Iran's dual military structure, explaining the critical distinction between the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and the regular armed forces (Artesh), and how the IRGC grew from an ideological militia into an oversized parallel state controlling everything from telecommunications to Iran's nuclear program, while becoming increasingly corrupt and internally divided.

The second hour is devoted to analyzing the current protests engulfing Iran, how they differ from previous uprisings, and the implications for a severely weakened IRGC following Israel's dismantling of its proxy network, the relentless targeting of its commanders, and its failure to secure the safety of its own citizens from Israeli reprisals. They explore the regime's internal factionalization, the role of the merchant class in these protests, the potential pathways forward—from managed regime decay to military intervention to outright chaos—and the cascading effects that Iran's instability could have on its neighbors, from Turkey and Azerbaijan to Iraq, Afghanistan, and beyond.

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Episode Recorded on 01/15/2026