Jon Alterman, director of the Middle East Program at CSIS, discusses the latest developments in the Israel-Hamas war. Topics include the coordinated attacks by Hamas, impact on US foreign policy, President Biden's efforts to recalibrate the US-Israel relationship, and the role of the United States in the conflict.
Both sides in the Israel-Hamas war prefer measured escalation to avoid a full-blown war with Hezbollah, considering Lebanon's economic crisis.
The US emphasizes political outcomes and long-term strategy in engaging with Israel, while providing aid packages to gain support for American interests.
Deep dives
Escalation with Hezbollah and Arab states' reaction to the conflict
There is a likelihood of escalation with Hezbollah, but both sides prefer measured escalation. Hezbollah wants to make their presence felt on the northern border, but they fear a full-blown war with Israel due to Lebanon's economic crisis. Arab governments, while hating Hamas, are sympathetic to Palestinian lives. Governments in the Gulf may criticize in private, while Levant countries may witness public protests. The governments are trying to navigate sustaining their strategic alignment with Israel while defending the lives of Palestinian civilians.
US influence on Israeli decision-making and aid packages
President Biden sought to establish a strong connection with Prime Minister Netanyahu to have influence on Israeli decision-making. The US emphasizes the importance of political outcomes and long-term strategy, which differs from the Israeli focus on eradicating Hamas militarily. The US aid packages, both humanitarian and military, demonstrate a broader strategy of engaging with Congress on the US role in the world and getting bipartisan support for American interests
Hostage situation and Israeli ground invasion
It is unclear why the specific hostages were released, and the situation for remaining hostages is uncertain. A large-scale ground invasion by Israel could compromise the safety of the hostages. It is unknown if there will be more releases or if there is a clear strategy for handling the hostages' situation by Hamas.
Just over two weeks after Hamas invaded Israel, Leah Hickert speaks with Jon Alterman, director of the Middle East Program at CSIS, about the latest developments in the Israel-Hamas war. A new Analysis from the CSIS Middle East Program.