The Big Story Breaking down the latest developments in Syria
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Dec 11, 2024 Professor Elliot Tepper, a distinguished Middle Eastern politics expert, dives deep into the seismic shifts in Syria following the downfall of the Assad regime. He discusses the implications of the new transitional government and the challenges of nation-building amidst a traumatized society. Tepper explores the changing dynamics with Russia and Iran, the potential resurgence of ISIS linked to the prison crisis, and how U.S. foreign policy is shifting towards local governance rather than direct military action. A hopeful yet cautious outlook emerges for Syria's future.
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Assad's Downfall
- Assad's previous resilience stemmed from Iranian and Russian support, crucial during the 2011 Arab Spring and subsequent civil war.
- This time, both powers were absent, likely due to their respective involvements in Ukraine and conflicts with Israel.
Reasons for Assad's Fall
- Russia's involvement in Ukraine and Iran's conflicts with Israel have weakened their ability to support Assad.
- These geopolitical factors contributed to the Syrian army's unwillingness to defend the regime.
Opportunity for the Rebels
- Al-Shirah's swift offensive was opportunistic, capitalizing on Russia and Iran's weakened state due to other conflicts.
- The timing coincided with the Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire, further suggesting strategic awareness.