Inu Manak, a trade policy expert at the Council on Foreign Relations, explores the lessons from the historic Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act. He discusses the potential ramifications of modern tariffs under Trump's leadership and how protectionist policies could hurt the U.S. economy. Manak warns that these measures may give rise to a self-fulfilling prophecy regarding U.S.-China relations. The conversation also lightens up with surprising ties to the film "Ferris Bueller's Day Off" and local meat sourcing!
The Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act serves as a historical warning that protectionist trade policies can lead to severe economic downturns, as seen in the Great Depression.
Current tariffs under the Trump administration may disproportionately impact the U.S. economy due to the high percentage of trade in GDP and reliance on intermediate goods.
Deep dives
Consequences of Smoot-Hawley Tariffs
The Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act of 1930 significantly impacted the U.S. economy by raising tariffs on various goods in a bid to help alleviate the Great Depression. This resulted in a drastic collapse of trade, with imports plummeting by 41% from 1930 to 1932 and a staggering drop in the Gross National Product by almost 30%. The retaliation from trading partners exacerbated the situation, leading to a further downturn in economic conditions. This historical event serves as a cautionary tale for current trade policies, illustrating how protectionist measures can lead to unintended consequences that may deepen economic crises.
The Impact of Modern Tariffs
Today's tariffs under the Trump administration draw comparisons to the Smoot-Hawley era, but the economic landscape is significantly different. Currently, trade constitutes a substantial 14% of U.S. GDP, compared to just 1.4% during the 1930s, meaning modern tariffs could have a more pronounced impact. Intermediate goods, crucial for manufacturing, make up over half of imports, indicating that tariffs could stifle domestic production and raise costs across various sectors. The consequences of these policies have already been felt, as many small businesses have reported increased operational costs and reduced competitiveness due to existing tariffs.
Future of Global Trade Relations
The ongoing shift in U.S. trade policy raises concerns about America's standing in the global market, particularly as traditional trade commitments erode. The potential for further tariffs and protectionist measures could lead to increased uncertainty for both U.S. allies and trading partners, disrupting established economic ties. As countries adapt to avoid reliance on U.S. goods, the nation risks isolating itself and losing international leverage in trade negotiations. This scenario underscores the importance of a stable, rules-based trading system to maintain economic prosperity and cooperation among nations.
If President Donald Trump goes through with his plan to levy sweeping tariffs on foreign imports, it wouldn’t be the first time the U.S. has done such a thing. Ever heard of the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act of 1930? Anyone? Those tariffs are widely credited with sinking the United States deeper into the Great Depression. And although global trade looks different nowadays, they can teach us a lot about how Trump’s protectionist approach to global trade could play out. On the show today, Inu Manak, a fellow for trade policy at the Council on Foreign Relations, explains how the Smoot-Hawley tariff debacle can shed light on the current moment, why the president has the power to wield tariffs in the first place, and how punishing trading partners could leave the U.S. economy at a disadvantage. Plus, what this fight has to do with the 1980s film “Ferris Bueller’s Day Off” and Roomba vacuum cleaners!
Later, one listener’s call to visit your local butcher. And, dating coach Damona Hoffman, host of the “Dates and Mates” podcast, answers the “Make Me Smart” question just in time for Valentine’s Day.