ChinaTalk How will Beijing Respond to the War in Ukraine?
Apr 1, 2022
Bonny Lin, Director of the China Power Project at CSIS and an expert in Chinese foreign policy, dives into Beijing's response to the Ukraine war. She discusses the PLA's possible adaptations based on lessons learned and how U.S. intelligence comparisons might shift China's military strategies regarding Taiwan. The conversation also delves into China's careful balancing act with Russia, examining future implications for national security and the geopolitical landscape. Lin highlights the challenges in analyzing defense policy amidst such complex international dynamics.
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China's Misunderstanding
- China didn't have a full understanding of Russia's intentions in Ukraine.
- Conversations with Chinese officials suggest they were told a limited operation was planned.
Trust and Distrust
- Chinese officials trusted their Russian counterparts over US intelligence about the invasion.
- They discounted US warnings as attempts to divide them from Russia.
Learning from US Intelligence
- China should learn from the US intelligence success in Ukraine.
- Recognize that the US can likely detect invasion preparations, thus adding deterrence.