The Daily About Those Polls…
Nov 10, 2020
Nate Cohn, a domestic correspondent for The Upshot at The New York Times and a polling expert, delves into why recent polls failed dramatically, even worse than in 2016. He explores the historic role of Latino voters, who turned out strongly yet shifted support towards Trump, emphasizing economic issues over immigration. The suburban vote also surprised many, with shifts from Trump to Biden in key battlegrounds. Cohn critically assesses polling inaccuracies and whether they still hold relevance in today’s political landscape.
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Latino Vote Shift
- Latino voters swung towards Trump across the US, even in traditionally Democratic areas.
- This shift suggests a successful appeal by Trump, potentially linked to economic concerns and a de-emphasis on immigration.
Black Voter Turnout
- Black voter turnout increased, but not as much as white turnout.
- Trump gained some ground with black voters, possibly due to economic appeal, but Democrats still hold the majority.
Trump's Economic Appeal
- Trump seems to receive credit for pre-pandemic economic success, despite current economic struggles.
- Voters might believe he can restore prior prosperity and may not fully grasp the complexities of his pandemic economic policies.