494 Simple, Complicated, Complex

In this episode, Brian and Chad Hall unpack the "Simple–Complicated–Complex" lens for leaders and coaches—how to tell which kind of situation you're facing and how to respond differently so you stop over-analyzing the unknowable and start learning your way forward.

• Definitions with pictures: Simple = obvious cause/effect (dominoes). Complicated = cause/effect exists but requires expertise (car engine, medical diagnosis). Complex = patterns only clear in hindsight; outcomes shift as actors adapt (rainforest, economy, AI).

• The core mistake: Treating complex problems with complicated tools—endless analysis and confidence theater—when what's needed is experimentation and learning.

• Operate by domain: Simple → standardize and simplify; Complicated → analyze, measure, hire experts; Complex → place small bets, learn fast, adapt.

• Real-world examples: Hiring during COVID, SEO after algorithm shifts, tariffs and the economy, competition dynamics (new stores nearby), church growth models—each shows why yesterday's levers stop working.

• Beyond business: Parenting and long-range strategy are inherently complex—near-term is clearer, long-term requires humility, feedback loops, and patience.

• Name the game first. Ask: Is this simple, complicated, or complex? Your tactics should match the domain.

• In complex spaces, act to learn. Don't wait for perfect clarity—run small experiments, gather feedback, iterate.

• Save analysis for the right problems. Use experts and diagnostics where cause/effect can genuinely be mapped.

• Bias toward simplicity. Wherever possible, reduce processes to the simplest reliable system (hello, E-Myth).

• Hold plans loosely. What worked may stop working; assume adaptation is part of the job, not a detour.