Show from 08/22/25
Host Jeremy Schwartz and Professor Siegel react to Powell’s dovish shift in tone, with the Professor characterizing it as a clear pivot towards rate cuts. Siegel emphasizes that inflationary pressures driven by tariffs are likely to be treated as one-time increases and ignored by the Fed, while the labor market becomes the primary focus going forward. He outlines a forecast of 75 basis points of cuts by early next year, contingent on labor conditions, and notes that falling long-term yields could significantly ease mortgage rates, supporting continued strength in equities. (28:36) Jeremy continues with Samuel Rines live from Margate, where they examine how corporate earnings, particularly from Walmart and Ross stores, reveal that consumers remain active despite rising prices. However, they caution that tariff impacts are starting to show up in margins, especially for small caps, which have already been under pressure from high interest rates. The conversation turns to sector positioning, including renewed strength in defense stocks amid European geopolitical developments, and optimism around Japan’s equity markets driven by favorable global policies and undervaluation. They also discuss the role of government involvement in strategic industries like semiconductors, the equity premium in Japan versus the U.S., and how policy changes are reshaping investment flows. Sam concludes that managing margins, not revenues, will be the critical driver of equity performance over the next 6 to 12 months, especially as companies navigate cost pressures without triggering political backlash.
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