Odd Lots So Much of the World Economy Has Been Going in Reverse
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Apr 17, 2023 
Guests Henry Williams and David Ox, co-authors of "The Long, Slow Death of Global Development," dive into the stagnation of global economies, especially outside East Asia. They challenge the optimistic narrative of steady economic growth, highlighting the struggles of many nations to industrialize. The discussion critiques the predominance of low-value service jobs and the failures of traditional development models. They explore Southeast Asia's economic transformations and stress the necessity for innovative approaches amidst complex global dynamics.
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Manufacturing's Importance
- Manufacturing increases national economic productivity through unconditional productivity convergence.
- It absorbs surplus labor and drives economic complexification, density, and urbanization.
Leapfrogging Manufacturing
- Developing economies cannot easily transition to service-based economies without a strong manufacturing base.
- Service work in these countries is often informal, low-value-added, and doesn't drive economic growth.
Birds in Flight Model
- The "birds in flight" model of development isn't automatic; it requires economic, political, and structural adaptation.
- China's success stems from pre-market factors like good social development metrics and functional institutions, unlike other developing nations.