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Feed Drop from The Generalist: Why a16z's Martin Casado believes the AI boom still has years to run

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Dec 30, 2025

Guest

Martin Casado

In a conversation with Mario Gabriele, Martin Casado, a General Partner at Andreessen Horowitz, discusses why he believes the AI boom is still in its early stages and likens the current excitement to the late-90s dot-com era. He outlines the potential for AI coding to become a multi-trillion-dollar market and emphasizes the importance of market-first investing. Martin also highlights challenges in enterprise AI adoption and the growing impact of open-source models, while urging the U.S. to enhance policies to foster innovation.

01:21:52

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insights

INSIGHT

Market-First Investing

Martin Casado starts investing from markets inward, not company outward, because markets usually create companies.
He then asks if the founder fits that market before deciding to invest.

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ADVICE

Follow Founder Signals, Then Wait

If multiple credible founders are building in a space, treat the space as legitimate and research leaders.
Wait if no clear leader exists, and invest when a durable leader emerges.

insights

INSIGHT

AI Feels Like 1996, Not 1999

Casado sees today's AI energy as similar to the mid-90s dot-com optimism and cultural movement.
He believes we are early in the cycle, roughly '96 rather than the late-90s bubble peak.

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From game engines to computational physics

02:57 • 3min

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Keeping technical hobbies alive with AI

06:01 • 45sec

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Leaving a PhD for founding and responsibility

06:45 • 4min

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Lessons from VMware and scaling products

10:17 • 2min

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Joining Andreessen Horowitz

12:45 • 3min

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Ben Horowitz's pricing lesson

16:00 • 2min

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How a16z transformed since 2016

18:08 • 2min

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What counts as infrastructure investing

20:31 • 2min

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Why product experience matters for investments

22:21 • 3min

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Market-first investing framework

24:57 • 4min

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Deciding when a leader has emerged

28:40 • 3min

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Hock Tan as an operational exemplar

31:23 • 2min

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Non-consensus investing nuance

33:41 • 3min

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AI feels like the late-90s energy

36:50 • 7min

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Capital intensity and revenue in AI

43:52 • 2min

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Why many enterprise AI projects fail

45:28 • 2min

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How Martin uses AI personally

47:37 • 3min

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Models: god-models versus composition

50:31 • 5min

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Why we backed Cursor for developer tooling

55:39 • 3min

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Defensibility in accelerating markets

58:21 • 2min

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World Labs' 3D ambitions and team

01:00:40 • 3min

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3D content's market potential and robotics

01:03:48 • 5min

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Why Martin avoids AGI framing

01:08:59 • 3min

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Continued progress vs straight path to AGI

01:12:06 • 2min

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US lag in open-source model leadership

01:13:40 • 3min

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Policy, national interest, and catching up

01:16:28 • 11sec

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Thought experiments and cultural practices

01:16:39 • 2min

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Books Martin would assign globally

• Mentioned in 3 episodes

The Art of Doing Science and Engineering

Richard Hemming

#360

• Mentioned in 65 episodes

The End of History and the Last Man

Francis Fukuyama

In this book, Francis Fukuyama posits that human history is moving towards a state of idealized harmony through the mechanisms of liberal democracy. He argues that liberal democracy is the final form of human government, driven by two powerful forces: the logic of modern science and the struggle for recognition. Fukuyama draws on the philosophical ideas of Hegel and Kojeve, suggesting that liberal democracy meets the economic and psychological needs of humanity, including the desire for recognition and dignity. The book explores the implications of this thesis, including the potential paradox that the satisfaction of basic needs might lead to a lack of outlets for human striving and recognition.

#107

• Mentioned in 140 episodes

The Beginning of Infinity

Explanations That Transform the World

David Deutsch

In this groundbreaking book, David Deutsch argues that explanations have a fundamental place in the universe and that improving them is the basic regulating principle of all successful human endeavor. The book takes readers on a journey through various fields of science, history of civilization, art, moral values, and the theory of political institutions. Deutsch explains how we form new explanations and drop bad ones, and discusses the conditions under which progress, which he argues is potentially boundless, can and cannot happen. He emphasizes the importance of good explanations, which he defines as those that are 'hard to vary' and have 'reach', and argues that these explanations are central to the Enlightenment way of thinking and to all scientific and philosophical progress.

#403

• Mentioned in 60 episodes

The WEIRDest People in the World

Joseph Patrick Henrich

Korey Jackson

Joseph Henrich

In this book, Joseph Henrich explores how Western, Educated, Industrialized, Rich, and Democratic (WEIRD) populations developed their unique psychological profiles. He argues that changes in family structures, marriage, and religion, particularly influenced by the Roman Catholic Church, led to the emergence of WEIRD psychology. This psychology is characterized by individualism, self-obsession, control-orientation, nonconformity, and analytical thinking, which contrast with the more group-focused and shame-driven cultures of non-Western societies. Henrich uses research from anthropology, psychology, economics, and evolutionary biology to explain how these psychological differences contributed to the industrial revolution and the global expansion of Europe.

This episode is a special replay from The Generalist Podcast, featuring a conversation with a16z General Partner Martin Casado. Martin has lived through multiple tech waves as a founder, researcher, and investor, and in this discussion he shares how he thinks about the AI boom, why he believes we’re still early in the cycle, and how a market-first lens shapes his approach to investing.

They also dig into the mechanics behind the scenes: why AI coding could become a multi-trillion-dollar market, how a16z evolved from a small generalist firm into a specialized organization, the growing role of open-source models, and why Martin believes AGI debates often obscure more meaningful questions about how technology actually creates value.

Follow Mario Gabriele

X: https://x.com/mariogabriele

https://www.generalist.com/

Follow Martin Casado:

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/martincasado/

X: https://x.com/martin_casado

The Generalist Substack: https://www.generalist.com/

The Generalist on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@TheGeneralistPodcast

Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/6mHuHe0Tj6XVxpgaw4WsJV

Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-generalist/id1805868710

Check out everything a16z is doing with artificial intelligence here, including articles, projects, and more podcasts.

Please note that the content here is for informational purposes only; should NOT be taken as legal, business, tax, or investment advice or be used to evaluate any investment or security; and is not directed at any investors or potential investors in any a16z fund. a16z and its affiliates may maintain investments in the companies discussed. For more details please see a16z.com/disclosures.

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