Odd Lots Goldman's Hatzius and Snider on the Outlook for 2026
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Dec 29, 2025 
Jan Hatzius, Goldman Sachs' chief economist, and Ben Snider, chief U.S. equity strategist, dive into the surprising developments of 2025 and the outlook for 2026. They discuss the strong GDP amidst flat unemployment, fueled by productivity gains and the interplay of tariffs. Both explore the S&P 500's projected target of 7600 and what it signals about market concentration and AI's uncertain impact on productivity. Expect a nuanced take on consumer spending and market risks, with insights into how companies are adjusting to navigate economic pressures.
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Coordinated Yet Independent Research
- Goldman Sachs research coordinates macro and market teams while allowing independent views within limits.
- Jan Hatzius says alignment helps produce coherent forecasts without eliminating individual initiative.
Growth With Stable Unemployment
- Goldman forecasts 2.6% real GDP in 2026 with unemployment roughly flat at 4.5%.
- They attribute this to accelerating productivity growth partly driven by upcoming AI gains.
Earnings Drove The Rally
- Strong earnings growth, not just mega-cap mania, drove 2025 equity returns.
- The S&P 490/493 returned ≈15% showing broad market strength beyond top tech names.