Mike Simonsen on addressing the housing affordability crisis
Jan 23, 2025
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Mike Simonsen, President of Altos Research, dives into the pressing housing affordability crisis. He discusses the significant drop in home sales linked to soaring mortgage rates and how this challenges buyers as spring approaches. Simonsen sheds light on regional market trends and inventory changes, particularly in Buffalo. He also highlights the broader implications of recent policies on housing supply and prices, urging listeners to consider how these dynamics will shape the future of home buying.
Current high mortgage rates above 7% are stalling home sales, indicating a significant decline in market activity compared to last year.
The housing affordability crisis is prompting buyers to seek cheaper homes, revealing deep economic pressures affecting purchasing decisions.
Deep dives
Current Home Sales Trends
Current home sales are experiencing a significant decline, with pending sales data indicating a 10% decrease compared to the previous year. This trend began around the holidays and has continued into January, signaling a troubling pattern for the housing market. High mortgage rates, currently above 7%, are contributing to this drop, as sellers are hesitant to enter a slowing market. Although there was initial optimism for increased sales as rates decreased in the fourth quarter of last year, that momentum has since dissipated.
Affordability Crisis and Buyer Behavior
The affordability crisis in the housing market is multifaceted, comprising high home prices, increased insurance costs, and rising property taxes. Buyers are responding to these pressures by adjusting their purchasing behavior, often opting for less expensive homes rather than leaving the market entirely. As a result, there is a noticeable shift in demand, with buyers willing to pay less and seeking more affordable options. This adjustment reflects the broader economic challenges homebuyers currently face in a high-cost environment.
Market Inventory Dynamics and Future Outlook
There is a considerable increase in the number of unsold homes on the market, with inventory rising by 25% compared to the previous year. This growth in inventory is largely attributed to softer buying conditions and declining demand in southern markets, while prices in some northern markets remain stable or increase. Looking ahead, predictions suggest a slow growth in home sales by around 5% for the coming year, although current data is trending below initial forecasts. Factors such as persistent high mortgage rates and evolving housing policies will play a crucial role in shaping the market's future trajectory.
On today’s episode, Editor in Chief Sarah Wheeler talks with Altos President Mike Simonsen about home sales, the affordability crisis and how Trump’s housing policies could affect the spring home-buying market.
The HousingWire Daily podcast brings the full picture of the most compelling stories in the housing market reported across HousingWire. Each morning, listen to editor in chief Sarah Wheeler talk to leading industry voices and get a deeper look behind the scenes of the top mortgage and real estate stories. Hosted and produced by the HousingWire Content Studio.