Rocky Fishman, Founder and CEO of Asym 500 LLC, is a derivatives expert specializing in systematic trading strategies. He delves into the nuances of leveraged ETFs, revealing how these products can create unexpected buying and selling pressure simultaneously. Rocky discusses the wild August 5th VIX event, emphasizing how swiftly market tails can emerge. He also highlights the critical role of end-of-day trading dynamics and the vital importance of monitoring liquidity in the current volatile market landscape.
The significant growth of leveraged ETFs, with $135 billion in U.S. assets, highlights their systemic impact on market volatility and trading dynamics.
The August 5th VIX event serves as a stark reminder of how suddenly market liquidity can erode, complicating risk management for participants.
Deep dives
Insights on Leveraged ETFs
The discussion centers around the significant growth of leveraged ETFs, which now account for approximately $135 billion in U.S. assets under management. These products employ systematic trading strategies that can lead to predictable buying and selling behaviors based on market movements. Interestingly, both long leveraged and inverse ETFs often operate in the same direction on the same trading day due to their rebalancing requirements, which can amplify market effects. This connection emphasizes the importance of monitoring these products closely, particularly during daily trading closes when their influencing activities peak.
Market Structure and Liquidity Lessons from August
Reflection on the VIX event of August 5th reveals crucial lessons about market liquidity and its sudden constraints during high-stress periods. The episode highlighted how quickly options market liquidity can deteriorate, making it challenging for participants to manage risk effectively. Prices for out-of-the-money options soared to previously unimaginable levels, indicating that market participants were unable to acquire protective options without substantial cost. This incident underscores the need for awareness regarding the fragility of liquidity within the market, especially in situations involving significant downturns.
Systematic Trading and Volatility Dynamics
The conversation outlines the role of systematic trading in influencing market dynamics, particularly how trading flows can lead to feedback loops. Leveraged ETFs and other trading strategies can systematically impact price movements, especially near market closes, prompting substantial rebalancing actions that contribute to volatility. This effect is compounded when considering how large tech stocks, which are often included in these ETFs, can create substantial market movement. These mechanistic trading behaviors can trigger rapid price changes, illustrating the intricate connections between ETF flows and broader market volatility.
Comparative Analysis of Options and Leveraged Products
A discussion on the interplay between options trading and leveraged ETFs reveals critical distinctions in how market participants engage with each. Unlike conventional options positions, which may not actively drive subsequent trading decisions, leveraged ETFs are designed to mechanically adjust their positions, leading to predictable trading patterns based on market performance. This systematic behavior reinforces price movements and can exacerbate volatility during turbulent market conditions. Understanding these dynamics is crucial for investors as they navigate the complexities introduced by these innovative financial products.
It was a pleasure to welcome Rocky Fishman, Founder and CEO of derivatives advisory firm Asym 500 back to the Alpha Exchange. An area of specialty for Rocky is evaluating systematic trading strategies, like vol targeting, that live and breathe within equity markets and potentially sponsor feedback loops.
The focus of our discussion, the growing universe of leveraged ETFs, a unique product set that has been on my mind and that Rocky has recently done a deep dive on. We start our conversation by revisiting the August 5th VIX event that saw the S&P options market turn highly illiquid as the prices quoted for deep out of the money puts reached unheard of levels. For Rocky, while the event came and went, there are lessons, namely that the tails can exert themselves suddenly.
With respect to leveraged ETFs, Rocky sizes the US universe as $135bln in assets under management for leveraged and inverse products, $120bln of which is in equity products. He walks through how both the leveraged long and inverse products on the same underlying, non-intuitively, are responsible for buying or selling in the same direction on the same day. These amplifying effects, unlike efforts to map the market’s gamma profile are unambiguous. As such, they are worth keeping a close eye on, especially as the ETF issuer’s daily required rebalancing efforts take place near the close of trading. Here, Rocky does observe both more vol and volume in the market near the end of the day.
I hope you enjoy this episode of the Alpha Exchange, my conversation with Rocky Fishman.
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