Supply Shock Bitcoin's Blow-off Top Is Coming | Michael Terpin
Aug 7, 2025
Michael Terpin, an early Bitcoin investor and author of Bitcoin Supercycle, dives into the cyclical nature of Bitcoin. He argues that Bitcoin follows predictable 'seasons' influenced by human psychology and market structures. Terpin discusses the impact of macro forces and ETF inflows, but emphasizes that cyclical corrections are driven by investor sentiment. He also explores the evolution of Bitcoin's narrative amid increasing adoption and the implications for its future value milestones.
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Bitcoin's Four-Year Cycle Endures
- Bitcoin's four-year cycle remains intact with diminishing returns over time.
- Past cycles showed 100x, 30x, and 8x gains post-halving, projecting a 3x gain this cycle.
Bitcoin's Seasonal Market Pattern
- Bitcoin's market behavior follows distinct seasonal patterns: spring, summer, fall, and winter.
- Spring starts at halving, summer peaks with new all-time highs, followed by a fall correction and winter capitulation.
Bitcoin Cycles Have Unique Narratives
- Each Bitcoin cycle develops a distinct dominant narrative shaping investor behavior.
- Narratives align in spring, peak in summer, and dissolve in fall, reflecting evolving community culture.
