Intelligence historian Tim Weiner and Chinese espionage expert Nicholas Eftimiades discuss CIA ops against Russia, Chinese covert campaigns against US dissidents, KGB infiltration and deception, challenges in obtaining truthful information in present-day Russia, China's Operation Fox Hunt, China's global threats and repression, and Chinese harassment of dissidents in the US.
China conducts transnational repression by stalking, intimidating, and silencing its critics in the US, posing a threat to the Chinese American community and the United States as a whole.
Instead of pursuing regime change in Russia, efforts should focus on empowering the Russian people to bring about change themselves through disseminating truthful information and supporting dissidents.
Deep dives
China's Transnational Repression
The Department of Justice has announced charges relating to transnational repression conducted by Chinese agents in the US, with attempts to suppress dissenting voices within the country and silence those who oppose the government. Cases highlight China's desire to stalk, intimidate, and silence its critics, using tactics like tracking down individuals accused of corruption or money laundering, targeting dissidents, religious figures, and advocates for democracy and human rights. China's transnational repression is a borderless campaign involving espionage, economic warfare, diplomacy, and covert operations. Chinese agents attempt to control the Chinese diaspora and trade associations, utilizing private investigators to gather information, targeting Chinese American officers in law enforcement, and even physically assaulting individuals to pressure them into compliance. The campaign poses a threat not only to the Chinese American community but also to the United States as a whole.
Possibility of Overthrowing Putin
While it is unlikely that the United States would pursue regime change in Russia, efforts to get the truth into Russia and counter Putin's empire of lies could work towards creating change from within. Historical attempts by the CIA to overthrow the Soviet Union during the Cold War were futile, and a similar approach is not viable or practical against Putin's regime. Instead, the focus should be on disseminating truthful information to the Russian people to counter state-controlled media and disinformation. The United States government could support dissidents and disillusioned Russian officials who may seek to defect, but the goal should be to empower the Russian people to bring about change themselves. The information operation to expose the truth and the fragility of Putin's rule is crucial.
Poland as a Blueprint
The successful efforts to undermine the Soviet Empire in Poland during the 1980s provide some insights into possible tactics against Putin's regime. Rather than resorting to armed conflict or uprisings, providing support to opposition groups, dissidents, and independent media can be effective. Examples from Poland demonstrate that supplying materials like paper, ink, printing presses, and technology can empower non-violent resistance and help in spreading truthful information. Setting up clandestine radio stations, breaking into state-controlled media broadcasts, and utilizing decentralized internet access can be powerful tools in countering propaganda and spreading the truth. The focus should be on getting truthful information to the Russian people and countering the empire of lies propagated by Putin's regime.
Political Warfare and Information Operations
The conflict with Russia and China involves a resurgence of political warfare, which utilizes all means short of war to project power and counter the projection of power by adversaries. Information operations, espionage, economic warfare, and covert operations play a significant role in this new landscape. While the Cold War was marked by a lack of understanding between the United States and the Soviet Union, the current situation is different as both sides possess substantial knowledge about each other. The challenge lies in countering disinformation and propaganda while ensuring that truthful information reaches the targeted audiences. The resurrection of NATO, economic sanctions, information warfare, and whole-of-government efforts are part of the strategy to protect democracies and blunt the influence of authoritarian regimes.
Intelligence historian Tim Weiner talks with Jeff Stein about CIA ops against Russia from the Cold War onward, and Chinese espionage expert Nick Eftimiades discusses Beijing’s covert campaigns against US-based dissidents with Jeanne Meserve.