The Best Ever CRE Show JF 4021: Weak Jobs Data, Fed Cuts and A Rare Debt Window with John Chang
Sep 7, 2025
John Chang, who leads the research team at Marcus and Millichap and has been deeply involved in commercial real estate since 2007, shares valuable insights. He delves into the latest jobs report and its implications for the Fed's interest rates, highlighting looming policy uncertainties. Chang discusses the current labor market landscape, potential stagflation, and its varying impact on commercial real estate sectors. He notes the optimistic outlook for real estate amid evolving trends, emphasizing successful niches like necessity retail and the resurgence of office spaces.
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Labor Market Has Teetered Toward Weakness
- The August jobs report shows a sharply slowing labor market with only 22,000 jobs added and revisions that put June into negative territory.
- John Chang says this weakness effectively locks in a Fed rate cut and is already pushing 10-year Treasury yields down.
Job Openings Tumbled Below Unemployed
- Job openings have fallen below unemployed people for the first time since 2017, confirming a labor market tipping point.
- Chang links that to higher odds of Fed rate cuts and downward pressure on the 10-year Treasury near 4%.
Lock Financing While The 10-Year Is Low
- If you need acquisition or refinance debt, consider locking now because the 10-year is near 4% and lenders haven't widened spreads.
- Chang warns this window may be narrow and rates could move up after Fed cuts or Treasury issuance.