NAB Morning Call Weekend Edition: Will the Republicans Sail Through the Mid-Terms?
Jul 4, 2025
Join Dr. Debra Leiter, an Associate Professor of Political Science & Philosophy at the University of Missouri-Kansas City, as she dives into the implications of President Trump's approval ratings on the upcoming midterms. She discusses the 'iron law of mid-term loss' and how current voter sentiments indicate a potential Republican victory. Leiter also questions what happens next for the presidency and the future of U.S. politics—will it shift back to the center or lean further left? Tune in for critical insights on the political landscape!
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Iron Law of Midterm Loss
- The iron law of midterm losses means the president's party generally loses House seats.
- Presidents often only effectively govern in their first two years.
Predicting Elections by Expectation
- Asking voters who they think will win predicts elections better than asking who they intend to vote for.
- Current expectations favor Republicans maintaining control in the next midterms.
Polarization Weakens Approval Ratings
- Presidential approval ratings have lost predictive power due to political polarization.
- Despite low approval (40%), voters expect Republican midterm victories.