Learning from Ukraine, Preparing for Taiwan

Mick Ryan is a retired major general in the Australian army and author of three books — War Transformed: The Future of Twenty-First-Century Great Power Competition and Conflict, White Sun War, which is a piece of fiction about a near-future Taiwan war, and The War for Ukraine: Strategy and Adaptation Under Fire. He also writes the excellent Futura Doctrina Substack, which has taught me a tremendous amount over the past few years. The way Mick synthesizes history and contemporary conflict makes it one of my few true must-read Substacks.

In today’s conversation, we discuss…

• Lessons from the history of warfare, and how to apply them to modern conflict,
• Why superweapons don’t win wars, and how the human dimension of war will shape military applications of AI,
• Why economic integration alone cannot prevent a US-China war,
• The role of deception and the limits of battlefield surveillance, with case studies in Ukraine and Afghanistan,
• Mick’s four filters for applying lessons from Ukraine to a Taiwan contingency, and the underappreciated role of Taiwanese public opinion in shaping CCP goals.

Thanks to the Hudson Institute’s Center for Defense Concepts and Technology for sponsoring this podcast.

Outro music: Elvis Presley — Down by the Riverside (YouTube Link)

Reading recommendations:

Paul Kennedy — The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers and Engineers of Victory: The Problem Solvers Who Turned the Tide in the Second World War

Norman F. Dixon — On the Psychology of Military Incompetence 

Aimée Fox — Learning to Fight: Military Innovation and Change in the British Army, 1914–1918 

Williamson Murray & Allan R. Millett — Military Innovation in the Interwar Period and Military Effectiveness trilogy 

Trent Hone — Learning War: The Evolution of Fighting Doctrine in the U.S. Navy, 1898–1945 

Brent L. Sterling — Other People’s Wars: The U.S. Military and the Challenge of Learning from Foreign Conflicts (2021)

Dima Adamsky — The Culture of Military Innovation: The Impact of Cultural Factors on the Revolution in Military Affairs in Russia, the US, and Israel (2010)

Meir Finkel — On Flexibility: Recovery from Technological and Doctrinal Surprise on the Battlefield and Military Agility: Ensuring Rapid and Effective Transition from Peace to War

Andrew Krepinevich —  The Origins of Victory: How Disruptive Military Innovation Determines the Fates of Great Powers

R.V. Jones —  The Wizard War: British Scientific Intelligence 1939-1945

Francis Hoffman — Mars Adapting: Military Change During War

You can find more syllabi on Mick Ryan's Substack (here and here)

Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices