Delve into the intriguing world of zero-day-to-expiration (0DTE) options and their unique behavior during Fed decisions. Discover how the market reacts to intraday option pricing, particularly on significant dates like FOMC days. The conversation also sheds light on the VIX's fluctuations as the U.S. elections loom, revealing insights on market volatility and investment risks. With tips for navigating these dynamics, this discussion is both engaging and valuable for market enthusiasts.
The Fed's decision to raise interest rates profoundly influences market behavior, highlighting the direct correlation between central bank policies and asset reactions.
Zero days to expiration options exhibit unique pricing dynamics on Fed Days, with volatility fluctuating significantly before and after critical announcements.
Deep dives
Impacts of the Fed's Interest Rate Decision
The recent decision by the Fed to increase interest rates by 50 basis points has significant implications for financial markets. This move led to various reactions across assets, notably causing gains in gold, Bitcoin, and the S&P 500, while also reducing volatility. The trading environment post-announcement indicates that the market's immediate reaction is dictated by the Fed's response to economic data, as traders now await further signs of economic weakening. A key takeaway is that the market often adjusts itself in anticipation of the Fed's actions, demonstrating the intricate relationship between central bank policies and market behavior.
Characteristics of Zero Days to Expiration (0DTE) Options
The concept of zero days to expiration (0DTE) options is explored, highlighting their unique pricing and behavior on Fed Day. A specific straddle option, categorized as zero theta to decision, displayed minimal price movement until the Fed's announcement, which allowed it to hold value despite the lack of underlying asset changes. This phenomenon illustrates how realized volatility can increase during periods of uncertainty, compensating for the usual time decay of options. After the Fed's announcement, however, the option's value diminished rapidly as implied volatility began to decrease, showcasing the volatility dynamics surrounding critical economic announcements.
The Relationship Between Volatility and Market Returns
Volatility and its relationship to market returns are critical considerations for investors, particularly following Fed decisions. Historical data shows that when realized volatility is low, the market tends to perform well, with the S&P historically achieving positive returns when volatility remains under 15 percent. Conversely, heightened levels of volatility are often correlated with negative returns, creating a complex interplay between market maneuvers and volatility trends. Additionally, the importance of timing capital deployment during chaotic market conditions becomes evident, as investing during high-volatility periods can offer significant returns in the long term.
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Market Dynamics Post-Fed Decision: A Deep Dive into Straddles and Volatility
The gamma and theta characteristics of ODTE are attached at the hip. But the zero day to expiration straddle on last Wednesday’s Fed day was no normal ODTE. We might call this straddle a OTTD straddle. Zero theta to decision. The Fed decision isn’t just a date on the calendar. It’s a specific time of day on that date. It’s not like NFP which comes out before the market opens. It’s not like NVDA earnings, which come out after the close. Powell and his Fed teammates have decided they want to give us the goods during the trading day and on Fed days, “Ain't nothing going on but the rent” becomes “Ain't nothing going on pre-event.” I discuss the unique behavior of intraday option pricing on FOMC day and also how to think about the VIX floor as the US election comes into closer view. I hope you enjoy and find this useful.
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