Renowned economist Lars Peter Hansen discusses the value of the Amazon rainforest as a carbon sink and its impact on climate change. They explore the challenges of incorporating uncertainty in economic models and the trade-offs of using land for agriculture versus carbon capture. The concept of putting a value on the rainforest and the importance of setting an external price for land use are also discussed. Potential solutions for rainforest preservation and the effectiveness of cost adjustments are highlighted.
Increasing the price of carbon emissions can incentivize shifting land use toward carbon capture in the Amazon rainforest, leading to meaningful changes in allocation of land for agriculture and carbon absorption.
By incorporating uncertainty quantification into models, policymakers can restructure incentives to encourage the preservation of the rainforest, resulting in substantial shifts in land use in as little as a decade.
Deep dives
The Importance of the Amazon Rainforest as a Carbon Sink
The Amazon rainforest plays a crucial role in addressing climate change by serving as a natural solution and absorbing carbon from the atmosphere. With over 100 billion tons of captured carbon, equivalent to the total US emissions from 1990 to 2010, the value of the rainforest in combating climate change is significant. While planting more trees in the Amazon and other rainforests can help, it is not a complete solution. However, increasing the price of carbon emissions can incentivize shifting land use toward carbon capture, leading to meaningful changes in the allocation of land for agriculture and carbon absorption.
Measuring the Trade-off between Agriculture and Carbon Capture
In order to assign a value to the trees in the Amazon rainforest, economists use a construct of price, specifically the price of carbon emissions. By increasing this external price, it becomes more rewarding to engage in activities that promote carbon capture, such as planting trees, while farming for agriculture becomes costlier. Dynamic and spatial analysis are used to understand the evolving dynamics of land use and productivity in the Amazon. A modest increase in the price of carbon emissions can result in a notable shift towards allocating more land for carbon capture, providing a relatively economical and effective way to preserve the rainforest.
Considering Uncertainty and Policy Challenges
One of the big challenges in valuing the trees in the Amazon rainforest is the uncertainty surrounding future land use and productivity. To address this, economists incorporate uncertainty quantification into their models, allowing for the examination of different scenarios and trade-offs. While the aggregate numbers regarding land use and carbon capture may not be sensitive to uncertainty, the order and locations of land use shifts are significantly influenced. By setting an external price for carbon emissions, policymakers can restructure incentives to encourage the preservation of the rainforest, leading to substantial shifts in land use in as little as a decade.
As a massive carbon sink, the Brazilian Amazon plays a crucial role in stabilizing the global climate. It’s also valuable farmland. How do economists measure this tradeoff? Lars Peter Hansen, Nobel Laureate and UChicago economist, joins The Pie to discuss his recent research on how policymakers might make the most of this precious and dwindling resource.
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