Tehran to Taipei: the Risks of Strategic Overreach | Dmitri Alperovitch

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Jun 30, 2025

Dmitri Alperovitch, co-founder of the Silverado Policy Accelerator and CrowdStrike, shares insights on American and Israeli tactics in Iran amidst rising geopolitical tensions. He discusses the implications of Israel's targeted strikes against Iran's nuclear program and how these actions may influence a potential Chinese invasion of Taiwan. Alperovitch evaluates the risks of U.S. military involvement in the conflict, addressing reactions from regional players like Saudi Arabia and the shifting security landscape in the Middle East.

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INSIGHT

Iran's Threshold Nuclear Strategy

Iran has been a threshold nuclear state for decades, possessing enriched uranium but delaying final weapon assembly.\n- This strategic pause aims to maintain deterrence while avoiding immediate escalation and sanctions beyond existing ones.

INSIGHT

Why Israel Struck Iran Now

Israel chose to strike now because Iran’s nuclear program is closer than ever to being weaponizable.\n- They also saw the Iranian retaliatory capabilities at a historic low due to prior hits on proxies and air defenses.

INSIGHT

October 7th Shifted Israeli Resolve

October 7th attack changed Israeli public resolve; they view current strikes as continuation of a war Iran and proxies launched.\n- Israel aims to dismantle the so-called 'ring of fire' partly by striking Iran directly.

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In Episode 425 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with geopolitical and intelligence analyst Dmitri Alperovitch about the new security dynamics and economic opportunities that arise from America's and Israel's attacks on Iran, the risks of strategic overreach, and whether U.S. actions do more to compel or deter a Chinese invasion of Taiwan.

In the first hour, Alperovitch scrutinizes Israel's decision to initiate a series of targeted strikes against Iran's nuclear program, including their decision to assassinate key nuclear scientists and senior members of the IRGC. We discuss America's choice to participate in this campaign, Iran's response, potential additional repercussions from these attacks, political conditions within the Islamic Republic, and whether this latest round of violence might precipitate the collapse of the Iranian government or incite a coup against its supreme leader, Ali Khamenei.

In the second hour, Alperovitch is asked whether he believes Trump's decision to involve the American military directly in Israel's war with Iran was in America's national interests or if it results in strategic overreach that will further undermine American security and the credibility of American global leadership. He and Kofinas discuss how this move is perceived by other regional players like Saudi Arabia and the Gulf States, how it alters the security dynamics in the Middle East, and how it affects Dmitri's assessment of the risks Washington faces in its broader Cold War with the People's Republic of China.

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Producer & Host: Demetri Kofinas Editor & Engineer: Stylianos Nicolaou

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Episode Recorded on 06/23/2025