Minxin Pei, a Claremont College professor and expert on US-China relations, joins Rana Mitter, Harvard Kennedy School's modern China specialist. They discuss Trump's complex relationship with Xi Jinping, touching on tariffs and military tensions over Taiwan. The conversation dives into the challenges of economic rivalry, AI dominance, and how Trump might strategize to counter China’s rise. They also explore Xi's leadership paradox amidst tightening global dynamics and the fate of U.S.-China ties in an era of increasing geopolitical uncertainty.
The podcast discusses the evolving dynamic between Trump and Xi, highlighting how initial diplomatic engagements gave way to adversarial tensions impacting trade and security.
It emphasizes the current geopolitical landscape where China, facing economic challenges, may approach future negotiations with more caution and potential openness to compromise.
Deep dives
The Evolution of U.S.-China Relations
The podcast delves into the initially positive interactions between Trump and Xi Jinping during Trump's first term, highlighting a 'state visit plus' where Xi rolled out elaborate ceremonies to impress Trump. The visit included grand displays such as marching bands and a lavish private dinner at Jianfu Palace, suggesting a strategic move by Xi to establish a favorable image. However, despite the pomp, substantial policy progress did not materialize; primarily, it served to flatter Trump's ego and project China's soft power. As their relationship soured, the podcast notes the shift toward adversarial dynamics marked by a trade war and the COVID-19 pandemic.
Phases of Perception: China’s View of Trump
The discussion identifies three key phases in how China interpreted Trump's approach during his tenure. Initially, Chinese leaders viewed Trump as a typical businessman open to deal-making, but this perception quickly evolved as he adopted a more adversarial national security strategy labeling China as a primary rival. As the trade war unfolded, Xi underestimated Trump's resolve, believing he could be dominant, leading to a miscalculation on how to engage effectively. By the end of Trump’s term, the relationship had deteriorated significantly, reflecting deeper geopolitical tensions.
Current Geopolitical Landscape
The conversation shifts to the contemporary geopolitical dynamics, emphasizing that China is now in a weaker economic position compared to previous years and is less prepared for a renewed trade conflict. Several factors contribute to this precarious state, including domestic economic challenges and the need for China to balance a burgeoning global influence alongside an increasingly wary international community. Conversely, the U.S. maintains economic strength but faces internal division, complicating its international standing. The discussion posits that while China will approach future negotiations with caution, it may be more open to compromise than in the past due to its current economic reality.
Implications of a Changing Political Landscape
The final segment of the podcast reflects on the potential repercussions of Xi and Trump’s next interactions, especially amidst contrasting geopolitical priorities. Xi's world view has shifted towards a focus on the global south, indicating a strategic pivot in China's foreign policy amid declining confidence in Western alliances. The analysis highlights both leaders' impetuous nature, yet outlines their fundamentally different political challenges—Xi's consolidation of power domestically versus Trump's dependency on external political support. The conversation culminates in contemplating how past dynamics influence potential future engagements, especially regarding U.S. relations with Russia and China's broader global strategies.
Trump has praised Xi Jinping in the past. He’s also slapped tariffs on China. What does the return of Trump mean for China? Economic rivalry for sure. Possible war over Taiwan? A battle over AI dominance and confrontation over China’s rapidly expanding military force, also for sure. How will Trump stop China from usurping America’s place on the global stage?
Guest: Minxin Pei, Claremont College professor and China commentator.
Book Recommendations:
The Red Emperor: Xi Jinping and His New China by Michael Sheridan.
Xi Jinping: The Backlash by Richard McGregor.
Sound design, original score, mixing and mastering by Rowhome Productions. Rowhome’s Creative Director is Alex Lewis. John Myers is Rowhome’s Executive Producer.