A Product Market Fit Show | Startup Podcast for Founders Q2 2025: The new Series A Bar is $3M ARR—& only 20% of seed startups make it. | Peter Walker, Head of Insights at Carta
Aug 21, 2025
Peter Walker, Head of Insights at Carta, reveals the stark realities of startup funding. It now takes over two years to transition from seed to Series A, with $3M ARR as the new benchmark. Founders now face greater dilution, owning just 56% post-first round. The shift towards AI is crucial—without it, startups struggle to attract attention. However, leaner teams and an uptick in exits signal a recovering landscape. Walker emphasizes the importance of understanding cash flow and current funding dynamics to succeed in this evolving market.
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2021's Echoes Still Distort Venture Markets
- 2021's funding surge still shapes today's venture landscape and created lasting distortions.
- The ChatGPT launch in 2022 overlapped the downturn and complicated the market recovery.
Plan For Much Longer Fundraising Timelines
- Plan runway longer because median time from A to B now exceeds 2.5 years.
- Avoid relying on frequent bridge rounds; secure cash to last well beyond fundraising cycles.
Concentration: Fewer Bets, Bigger Singles
- Fewer seed rounds are happening but those that do have higher valuations, creating a sharp bifurcation.
- Venture is concentrating capital into a smaller in-crowd, especially AI-native founders.