HousingWire Daily Why existing home sales show back-to-back months of yearly growth
8 snips
Sep 26, 2025 
Logan Mohtashami, a lead analyst specializing in housing and mortgage markets, joins to discuss the recent surge in existing home sales. He explains how low year-over-year comparisons and purchase application trends have played a role. The conversation dives into the current economic landscape, covering mortgage spread dynamics and the implications of jobless claims on recession risks. Discussing potential government shutdowns, Logan highlights their impact on jobs and rates, offering insights into what to watch in the housing market moving forward.
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Low Comps Drive YoY Growth
- Existing home sales showed year-over-year growth mainly because comps from June–October were unusually low this cycle.
- Logan Mohtashami warns to take the gains with a grain of salt since the baseline is historically depressed.
Rates Near 6% Support Demand
- Mortgage rates falling below about 6.64% improves housing demand and feeds into purchase activity with a lag.
- Mohtashami says it takes roughly 30–90 days for purchase-app momentum to show up in existing home sales data.
Consistent Purchase-App Momentum
- Purchase application data recently showed consistent weekly scaled growth after a choppy pattern earlier in the year.
- Logan calls the last eight weeks the best stretch of purchase-app performance for the year.