Discover why it's crucial to hedge during prosperous times rather than just when facing crises. The discussion addresses the patterns of implied volatility during major macro events like elections and Brexit. With a focus on navigating market uncertainty, it examines effective defensive trading strategies. Insights on the fluctuating S&P 500 emphasize the necessity of protective measures. The podcast also highlights various hedging strategies and the significance of proactive financial risk management in a volatile landscape.
Proactive risk management, exemplified by hedging when markets are strong, leverages financial products to safeguard against unforeseen downturns.
Understanding the relationship between implied and realized volatility is crucial for anticipating market shifts, particularly during significant macro events.
Deep dives
The Importance of Defensive Action in Market Conditions
Taking defensive action during favorable market conditions is crucial for effective risk management. The analogy of buying an umbrella when the skies are clear symbolizes the importance of preparing for unexpected downturns before they occur. By utilizing financial products such as put options, investors can safeguard against potential adverse market events while they are still in a bullish environment. This proactive approach can mitigate losses and provide a safety net when market conditions suddenly change.
Current Market Volatility and Implied Risks
The financial landscape is characterized by unusual market volatility, particularly with the VIX index remaining elevated despite low realized volatility. This discrepancy often indicates impending significant events that could impact market dynamics, as implied volatility spikes ahead of such occurrences. Historical examples, such as the fluctuations around major political events like the Brexit vote and U.S. elections, reveal how volatility peaks prior to these uncertainties and tends to decrease afterward. Recognizing these patterns can help investors navigate fluctuations and adopt strategies that capitalize on impending market shifts.
Navigating Risk with Strategic Hedging Techniques
Implementing strategic hedging techniques, such as put spread collars, is one way to protect gains while maintaining a favorable risk-reward ratio. Given the strong performance of major indices like the S&P 500 this year, allocating a portion of profits towards hedging can be seen as a sound investment decision. Analyzing the current low premiums for put spreads allows investors to hedge effectively against the risks of an unpredictable market without incurring significant costs. As uncertainties mount, even a small insurance fee can offer significant value and protect against potential volatility spikes.
In this short podcast, I make the case for doing what doesn’t come naturally - taking defensive action when times are good. The first portion of the discussion assesses event risk premium into and after consequential macro events like Brexit and prior US elections. The main shared attribute is that implied vol remains elevated into the event, even in the face of muted realized volatility. A second attribute is that post event, implied vol falls. While the same playbook may be relevant in 2024, I argue that overlaying market-based insurance via SPX put spreads out to year end is compelling given the pricing and unique set of forward-looking uncertainties coming our way and the reality that liquidity conditions can change very quickly. I hope you find this podcast interesting and useful.
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