Retail Gets Real 397. What’s driving holiday shopping in 2025
Nov 25, 2025
Katherine Cullen, Vice President at the National Retail Federation, dives into the holiday shopping trends for 2025. She reveals that consumers are projected to spend over $1 trillion this season, with traditions rooted in family and nostalgia. Discover the hottest toys like Legos and Squishmallows and where shoppers are finding their gift inspirations—from in-store experiences to social media. Cullen also shares heartwarming insights on how simple gifts like coffee and hugs resonate most with families, emphasizing the emotional value of the holidays.
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Consumers Drive Early Shopping
- Consumers, not retailers, primarily drive earlier holiday shopping timing each year.
- NRF data shows about 25% of shopping happens before November, with momentum in November and December.
Black Friday Still Matters
- Black Friday and Thanksgiving weekend remain strongly popular and socially meaningful for shoppers.
- NRF forecasts November–December sales exceeding $1 trillion, up as much as 3.7% year-over-year.
Holiday Spending Is Often Essential
- Many consumers view holiday spending as essential rather than discretionary.
- About 60% of holiday shoppers prioritize the holidays in their household budgets.