Global Data Pod Global Data Pod Weekender: The tick-tock of data watching
21 snips
Nov 14, 2025 This lively discussion tackles the 'tick-tock' dynamic of economic resilience versus labor market weakness. Speakers delve into the Fed's need for fresh data amid uncertainty and the global implications of job growth trends. They explore the tech-driven growth narrative, raising questions about sustainability and the concentration of improvements in certain sectors. The conversation also touches on China's economic challenges and the role of global fiscal policies in shaping prospects. Insights on the distribution of benefits from fiscal measures make for a thought-provoking dialogue.
AI Snips
Chapters
Transcript
Episode notes
Shutdown Drag And Data Fog
- The government shutdown's drag on activity should largely unwind in Q1 as furloughed workers receive back pay.
- Missing recent data clouds the Fed's December decision and complicates policy moves.
Tick-Tock Data Pattern
- Data shows a 'tick' of resilient spending/surveys and a 'tock' of weakening labor markets.
- Recent ADP and layoff anecdotes raise concern that labor weakness may build.
Growth Without Strong Hiring
- Growth has been OK despite slowing job creation, partly because tech and CapEx are capital-intensive.
- Labor income held up early in the year, supporting consumption even as hiring slowed.