Bill Browder, a businessman and human rights activist renowned for the Magnitsky Act, shares his experiences as a staunch critic of Vladimir Putin. He discusses the alarming decline of the rouble and the continued threat of Russian hybrid warfare. Browder also addresses the complex dynamics of U.S. relations with Putin, particularly during Trump's presidency. Additionally, he reflects on the dangers faced by opponents of the Kremlin and the resilience of Ukraine amid ongoing challenges.
The rise of hybrid warfare tactics by Russia, including sabotage and espionage, aims to destabilize Western support for Ukraine without direct conflict.
Putin's war strategy not only serves to maintain his power but also creates distractions, complicating peace negotiations amidst severe military setbacks.
Deep dives
Hybrid Warfare and Russian Sabotage
The ongoing conflict in Ukraine has seen an alarming rise in hybrid warfare tactics employed by Russia, aiming to undermine Western support without engaging in overt acts of war. These tactics include sabotage activities such as the cutting of undersea cables and placement of incendiary devices in cargo systems across multiple cities in Europe. The aim of these operations is to create chaos and confusion, while maintaining plausible deniability regarding the attribution of these acts. This subthreshold warfare highlights the dangers posed by Russia's actions, as they aim to weaken Western resolve in supporting Ukraine amid the threat of more aggressive military responses.
Challenges of Russian Intelligence Operations
The expulsion of over 750 Russian diplomats and spies from Europe has significantly compromised Russia’s intelligence operations, forcing them to rely on criminal networks to fulfill their objectives. These networks often operate without full awareness of who is ultimately funding their actions, highlighting a shift in Russian intelligence tactics due to increased scrutiny and pressure. As a result of this compromised landscape, the danger associated with Russia’s espionage activities has intensified, as these criminal entities may engage in indiscriminate and reckless operations. The reliance on such networks raises concerns about the overall effectiveness and accountability of Russia's intelligence capabilities.
Putin's Need for War to Maintain Power
Putin's ongoing war in Ukraine is fundamentally rooted in his desire to retain power, as failure could result in dire consequences for him personally. The war serves as a tool for distraction and a means to rally domestic support, while simultaneously seeking to destabilize political environments in Western nations. Despite Putin’s setbacks in Ukraine, he continues to employ hybrid tactics to disrupt and create fear among adversaries, knowing that a semblance of conflict strengthens his position at home. The scenarios of potential negotiations or peace discussions remain complicated, with skepticism over Putin's willingness to yield or accept any concessions without total capitulation from Ukraine.
The man behind the Magnitsky Act on Trump, hybrid warfare and fighting the Kremlin.
Sir William Browder is an American investor who made a fortune in post-Soviet Russia before falling foul of Vladimir Putin.
He’s now a fierce critic of President Vladimir Putin - and today he’s in the Ukrainecast studio to discuss why the rouble is tanking, what it’s like to draw the ire of the Russian president and whether an end to the war is near.
Today’s episode is presented by Jamie Coomarasamy and Frank Gardner.
The producers were Arsenii Sokolov and Ben Carter. The technical producer was Dan Ehrlich. The series producer is Tim Walklate. The senior news editor is Sara Wadeson.
Email Ukrainecast@bbc.co.uk with your questions and comments. You can also send us a message or voice note via WhatsApp, Signal or Telegram to +44 330 1239480
You can join the Ukrainecast discussion on Newscast’s Discord server here: tinyurl.com/ukrainecastdiscord
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