Unchained Will Bitcoin's New Phase Change It Forever? And Is the 4-Year Cycle Dead? - Ep. 974
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Dec 10, 2025 
Ryan Rasmussen, Head of Research at Bitwise, and David Nage, Portfolio Manager at Arca, share their insights on the crypto market's surprising downturn in 2025 and their optimistic outlook for 2026. They discuss the implications of Vanguard's major crypto pivot and explore whether Bitcoin's classic four-year cycle is coming to an end due to institutional adoption. The duo also delves into the transformative potential of tokenization and the role of stablecoins in the financial ecosystem, likening stablecoin evolution to the early days of email.
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The Four-Year Cycle Is Over
- Ryan Rasmussen argues the four-year Bitcoin cycle is dead because institutional adoption and regulatory clarity changed market dynamics.
- He predicts 2026 will be an up year with smaller drawdowns and fewer blow-off tops.
Bitcoin's 'Facebook Moment'
- David Nage compares Bitcoin's institutional shift to Facebook's user demographic change after its IPO.
- He calls this moment Bitcoin's "Facebook moment" as OGs rotate out and institutions rotate in.
Liquidity Moves Drive Short-Term Rallies
- Ryan links recent liquidity moves to Bitcoin's short-term bounce, citing the Fed ending QT and a large single-day liquidity injection.
- He ties liquidity, TGA flows, and potential rate cuts to improved risk asset performance.