Global Data Pod Global Data Pod Weekender: Giving thanks for data
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Nov 22, 2025 This week delves into the intriguing dynamics of U.S. economic growth and labor market signals. The hosts discuss how resilient business investments contrast with signs of a weakening workforce. They evaluate the implications of recent payroll data and mixed claims ahead of the Fed's decisions. Insights on Asian market upgrades and tech capital expenditures provide a global perspective. They also consider risks in consumer spending and the potential for unequal wealth impacts. All these elements paint a complex picture of economic trends moving forward.
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Caution, Not Just AI, Explains Labor Weakness
- The gap between resilient CapEx-driven growth and a weakening labor market is driven more by business caution than purely AI-led productivity shifts.
- That caution is reducing labor income and is the key near-term vulnerability for the consumer and growth.
Business Sentiment Showing Constructive Rebound
- Business surveys sit at relatively high levels and future output indices have rebounded to their best this year, signaling constructive business sentiment.
- Services resilience and regional Fed survey reversals support a cautiously positive near-term business picture despite weak manufacturing.
One Payroll Month Isn't Definitive
- October payrolls (private ~97k) are one good month that reduces downside risk but don't yet overturn the softer three-month run rate.
- The flow data and alt indicators still point to softness, so one month shouldn't drive policy conclusions.