Discussion on gangbuster GDP growth in the third quarter. Analysis of consumer spending and speculation about Taylor Swift's influence. Trends in consumer spending and private investment. Factors affecting GDP growth. Strength of new home sales and shift towards lower price points. Resilient GDP report and nervousness about the economy.
GDP growth in the third quarter exceeded expectations, driven by strong consumer spending and increased business investment, indicating a resilient and strong economy.
Residential investment showed renewed strength in the housing market, with growth for the first time in nine quarters, signaling positive signs for the market despite risks of higher interest rates and limited inventory impacting buyer demand.
Deep dives
Strong GDP growth in the third quarter
GDP growth in the third quarter was 4.9%, exceeding expectations. This growth rate was the highest since the end of 2021 and was broad-based across all sectors of the economy. Consumer spending played a significant role in driving this growth, with strong spending on both goods and services. Business investment also increased, particularly in residential fixed investment, which saw growth for the first time in nine quarters. Government spending contributed positively to GDP, with both federal and state/local spending seeing increases. The only detractor from growth was net exports, which had a small negative impact. Overall, the GDP report suggests a strong and resilient economy.
Residential investment showing strength
Residential investment showed strength in the third quarter, with a growth rate of 3.9%. This positive contribution to GDP was the first in nine quarters and indicates renewed strength in the housing market. The shift towards lower-end prices and increased affordability is a positive sign for the market. Prices of new homes have also come down, potentially due to higher interest rates leading to concessions and buy-downs. While the resilience of the housing market is notable, there is still the risk of a slowdown in prices as higher interest rates and limited inventory impact buyer demand.
Low inflation despite strong growth
The GDP report reflects strong growth with a 4.9% GDP growth rate, while inflation remains low with a core PCE index of 2.4%. This combination of strong growth and low inflation highlights the economy's resilience and suggests that supply-side factors from the pandemic and supply chain disruptions are fading. It is noteworthy that the economy is absorbing these shocks and maintaining solid growth without significant inflationary pressures. While the strong growth may not be sustainable in the long term, the current report indicates a positive outlook for the economy.
Reassessing recession risk
The recent GDP report and other economic indicators have lowered recession risk outlooks. The strong GDP growth, low inflation, and resilient consumer spending contribute to a more positive economic outlook. While there are still concerns about potential headwinds, such as higher interest rates and supply chain disruptions, the current data suggests that the risks of a recession in the near term have reduced. However, caution is still advised as the economy remains susceptible to external shocks and vulnerabilities. Continued monitoring of economic indicators is crucial to assess future trends and risks.
The inside Economics team takes up the gangbuster GDP growth in the third quarter. Marisa walks the group though the GDP identity C+I+G+net exports and concludes that while the report overstates the case, it makes a strong case that the economy is on solid ground. Cris gives Marisa an A+ for her exposition. Good thing given their history.
Follow Mark Zandi @MarkZandi, Cris deRitis @MiddleWayEcon, and Marisa DiNatale on LinkedIn for additional insight.
Get the Snipd podcast app
Unlock the knowledge in podcasts with the podcast player of the future.
AI-powered podcast player
Listen to all your favourite podcasts with AI-powered features
Discover highlights
Listen to the best highlights from the podcasts you love and dive into the full episode
Save any moment
Hear something you like? Tap your headphones to save it with AI-generated key takeaways
Share & Export
Send highlights to Twitter, WhatsApp or export them to Notion, Readwise & more
AI-powered podcast player
Listen to all your favourite podcasts with AI-powered features
Discover highlights
Listen to the best highlights from the podcasts you love and dive into the full episode