School of War Ep 251: John Lee on Ukraine, Peace, and What China Wants
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Nov 25, 2025 John Lee, a senior fellow at the Hudson Institute and former Australian national security advisor, dives into the strategic implications of Ukraine's war for the Indo-Pacific. He discusses the challenges of negotiating peace, analyzing the controversial 28-point plan. Lee connects the dots between the Ukraine conflict and China, arguing that it serves as a proxy for Chinese interests. He also explores nuclear deterrence, the importance of NATO concessions, and Japan's evolving stance on regional security, revealing the broader geopolitical stakes at play.
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Ukraine Outcome Shapes Indo-Pacific Security
- The Ukraine war's outcome matters for Indo-Pacific security because an emboldened Russia strengthens China.
- A peace that rewards Russian aggression would worsen the strategic environment for U.S. allies in Asia.
28-Point Plan Was Asymmetrical
- The leaked 28-point plan placed specific binding obligations mainly on Ukraine, not Russia.
- That asymmetry suggests the document underestimated the need to constrain future Russian intent.
Include Enforceable Leverage In Any Deal
- Don’t treat Ukraine like Gaza; leverage differs when negotiating with a major power.
- Ensure peace plans include coercive elements to make Russia keep commitments.