HousingWire Daily Logan Mohtashami: What to look for in today’s jobs report
11 snips
Jun 6, 2025 
Logan Mohtashami, Lead Analyst at HousingWire, shares his expertise on the intricacies of the labor market and its correlation with mortgage rates. He discusses critical job market trends, such as jobless claims and the significance of residential construction jobs as economic indicators. The conversation jumps into the impact of these trends on Federal Reserve policies and inflation. Mohtashami also highlights unexpected growth in housing market data, offering insights into how builders navigate today’s complex landscape.
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Labor Market's Nuanced Signals
- Jobless claims and ADP reports this week show some labor market softness but nothing alarming yet.
- A big miss in Friday's jobs report could trigger calls for Fed rate cuts, though the market may react before the Fed acts.
Residential Jobs as Recession Bellwether
- Residential construction jobs are a key leading indicator before a recession hits.
- Negative reports in this sector could precede increases in jobless claims and signal economic slowdown.
Labor Force Growth and Unemployment
- Labor force growth slowdown means unemployment rate may stay lower than expected even if job growth slows.
- The Fed watches job growth below 133,000 as a negative sign and may adjust policy accordingly.
