HousingWire Daily The shocking jump in new home sales
16 snips
Sep 25, 2025 
Logan Mohtashami, Lead Analyst at HousingWire, dives into the significant surge in new home sales, attributing it to recent drops in mortgage rates. He reveals the impact of sustained sub-6% rates on buyer demand and builder behavior. Logan discusses the current state of builders' inventory, emphasizing why completed units are more telling than just permit counts. He also addresses how larger builders leverage rate buy-downs effectively and forecasts potential growth in existing home sales as the market stabilizes.
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A Busy Morning After The Data Beat
- Logan describes an eventful morning juggling media appearances after the new-home sales beat.
- He recounts joking about taking shots at Powell and discussing yield behavior during interviews.
Sub-6% Rates Revive Demand
- Mortgage rates dipping toward 6% revived purchase activity and helped new-home sales surge.
- Logan notes mortgage spreads improving this year made sub-6% possible without major yield reversals.
Builders' Completed Inventory Is The Constraint
- Builders hold elevated completed-for-sale inventory so they can't freely ramp permits.
- Logan warns high completed units limit builder leeway and pressure profits if discounts rise.
