Anastasiia Lapatina, a Ukraine Fellow at Lawfare, and Eric Ciaramella from the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace dive into Ukraine's recent surprising incursion into Russian territory. They discuss the strategic implications of this bold military move, including its effects on ongoing fronts and U.S. support. The conversation also touches on morale among citizens, contrasting Ukrainian resilience and community spirit with Russian reactions, all while navigating the complexities of the political landscape in the conflict.
Ukraine's recent incursion into Russian territory represents a significant shift in military strategy, involving regular forces capturing 1,000 square kilometers.
The operation aims to distract Russian offensives in eastern Ukraine, potentially alleviating pressure on Ukrainian defenses in the Donetsk region.
Ukraine's attack has political implications, showcasing its military capabilities and redefining perceptions of Russia's strength among domestic and Western audiences.
Deep dives
Ukrainian Surprise Attack
Ukraine launched a surprise cross-border attack into Russian territory, managing to capture around a thousand square kilometers. This operation marked a significant shift, as it involved the regular Ukrainian military instead of smaller volunteer units seen in previous incursions. The operation aimed primarily to distract Russian forces from ongoing offensives in eastern Ukraine, particularly around Donetsk, potentially alleviating pressure on Ukrainian defenses in that region. Despite the initial success and territorial gains, the long-term military objectives remain unclear, especially regarding Ukraine's capability to hold the captured territories.
Political Significance
The political implications of Ukraine's incursion are substantial, particularly in terms of morale and messaging. This operation served to transform the narrative surrounding Ukraine's military capabilities, showcasing that they still maintain agency despite recent setbacks in the war. It also aimed to demonstrate to both domestic audiences and Western allies that Ukraine could engage Russian forces directly, thus shifting perceptions of Russia's strength and resolve. As the operation unfolded, it became a critical point for affirming Ukraine's commitment to defending its sovereignty and pushing back against Russian aggression.
Western Support and Reactions
The United States and its allies have taken a notably measured stance towards Ukraine's operations, indicating tacit support for the incursion while maintaining a cautious approach. U.S. officials appear to be reassessing previous restrictions against long-range strikes, acknowledging Ukraine's right to defend itself on its borders. This shift could signal an evolving dynamic in Western military assistance and a recognition of Ukraine's operational successes, despite ongoing concerns over escalation. The willingness of the U.S. to support Ukraine within certain limits highlights the complexity of the geopolitical calculations involved.
Russian Response and Internal Chaos
Russia's reaction to Ukraine's incursion has revealed significant internal disorder and confusion among its military and political leadership. Initial responses were slow and somewhat incoherent, with Russian officials struggling to strategize or communicate a unified message. The chaos included calls for evacuations in areas of Kursk and public complaints from local citizens expressing dissatisfaction with the government's handling of the situation. This situation underscores significant operational vulnerabilities within the Russian military structure, casting doubt on its established narrative of strength and control.
Future Implications and Uncertainties
As the situation evolves, the crucial question remains whether Ukraine can sustain its advances against any impending Russian counteroffensive. The effectiveness of Ukraine’s military strategy will depend on its ability to reinforce and maintain control over captured territories while managing limited resources. If Ukraine can repel Russian attempts to regain control, this could strengthen its negotiating position in potential future talks. Conversely, if Russian forces can effectively counter the operation, the narrative of Ukrainian agency and capability may falter, complicating the prospects for peace and stability in the region.
Over the past week, Ukrainian forces have launched a major incursion into Russia proper, occupying 1,000 square kilometers in Kursk Oblast, which borders Ukraine. The operation, which caught both Russia and the United States by surprise, is the first major Ukrainian offensive in more than a year. In this episode, Lawfare Editor-in-Chief Benjamin Wittes sits down with Lawfare's Ukraine Fellow Anastasiia Lapatina and Eric Ciaramella of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace to discuss the operation. What do we know amidst the Ukrainian media blackout? What is Ukraine trying to achieve militarily? How will the Kursk operation affect the other fronts in the ongoing war, in which Russia has been on the offensive? And what are the political implications of Ukraine occupying Russian territory?
