Darius Dale, founder of 42 Macro, joins MacroVoices to discuss markets, inflation, bond yields, and why he is still bullish. The podcast covers a range of interesting topics including the potential risk of inflation, peak interest rates, fiscal policy's impact on the market, China's role in the global economy, and the suite of offerings at 42 Macro. They also touch on crude oil market developments and provide listeners with a daily chart deck and research roundup.
Darius Dale predicts that the stock market's bull run will continue due to positive economic information and policy updates.
US balance sheets are strong, with flush cash reserves, low debt levels, and favorable debt service ratios.
Inflation expectations are rising, but confirmation from asset markets and data is needed before making bearish projections. A soft landing scenario and continued bull run are more probable.
Deep dives
Bullish outlook for stock market and continuation of bull run
Darius Dale, founder of 42 Macro, predicts that the stock market's bull run will continue. He highlights positive economic information and policy updates that support this outlook, including above-trend productivity growth, fiscal stimulus, and a potential soft landing for the economy. Dale believes that a sustained bull run is likely, with a diminished probability of recession and peak rates for this cycle.
Resilient US balance sheets and positive macroeconomic dynamics
Darius Dale discusses the strength of US balance sheets, citing flush household and corporate cash reserves, low levels of household and corporate debt, and favorable debt service ratios. He highlights the resiliency of the US economy and its potential for continued outperformance. Dale also emphasizes the importance of understanding these balance sheet dynamics and conducting a deep dive analysis to make informed investment decisions.
Inflation expectations and potential risks
Darius Dale addresses inflation expectations and its potential impact on the market. He notes that inflation tends to be relatively strong during fourth turning cycles, and there are signs of rising inflationary pressure, such as above-trend productivity growth and higher inflation indicators. However, he also acknowledges the ongoing immaculate disinflation in the time series and the need for confirmation from asset markets and data before making bearish projections. Dale believes that a soft landing scenario and continued bull run are the more probable outcomes at present.
China's Role in the Global Economy
China is increasingly seen as a rival to the West and is considered uninvestable for long-term capital allocators. However, from a cyclical standpoint, China may offer trade opportunities, particularly in commodities. Chinese policy support tends to peak in Q1, front-loading credit growth and fiscal expenditures. This policy support, along with liquidity dynamics, could contribute to upside risks in global markets.
The State of Volatility, Dollar, Gold, Uranium, and Treasury Bonds
Volatility remains low, but a breakout above key resistance levels could spur market corrections and rotations. The U.S. dollar is consolidating around 103, and a breakout above 104 could influence risk sentiment. Gold is showing bullish signs, with a potential breakout above resistance at 2028, leading to an upside target of 2724. Uranium mining shares continue to be a buy-on-dip opportunity. Bond yields have broken down, suggesting a bullish continuation for the 10-year Treasury note.
MacroVoices Erik Townsend & Patrick Ceresna welcome back 42 Macro founder, Darius Dale. Erik & Darius discuss markets, inflation, bond yields and why Darius is still bullish.