A Russo-Ukrainian War Update with Franz-Stefan Gady
Nov 30, 2023
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Franz-Stefan Gady, expert on Russo-Ukrainian conflict and author, discusses updates on the war in Ukraine, the development of 'wonder weapons,' the impact of precision strikes, and military strategy in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict. He also shares insights on his current projects, including an upcoming book on a potential military campaign against China.
The ongoing war of attrition in Ukraine is taking a toll on soldiers and requires adaptations, such as increased use of FPV drones on the battlefield.
Russia's minimally acceptable outcomes include control over Donbass and a land bridge to Crimea, but they still aim to exercise control over larger parts of Ukraine and a renewed offensive is anticipated.
Deep dives
The current status of the war in Ukraine
The morale among the frontline troops remains high, but the ongoing war of attrition is taking its toll on the soldiers. Losses have been substantial and certain adaptations have been made. There have been changes on the battlefield, including the increased use of FPV drones. The counteroffensive has culminated, but fighting continues. The Ukrainians are still on the attack, but the question of how long they can sustain it remains.
Russia's objectives in the conflict
Russia has obtained its minimally acceptable outcomes, including control over the Donbass and the land bridge to Crimea. However, the speaker believes that Russia still aims to exercise control over larger parts of Ukraine, particularly Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts. The immediate goal is to reach the borders of these oblasts, and a renewed offensive to accomplish these objectives is anticipated.
The limitations of precision strikes
Precision strikes and the deep battle are often seen as the solution to military problems, but they are only part of the equation. The speaker emphasizes the importance of recognizing that precision strikes are tactical in nature and open windows of opportunity that need to be exploited. Overreliance on precision strikes can neglect the close battle, particularly in urban operations where attritional combat is more likely.
Misconceptions and challenges in military thinking
One misconception is the notion that armor is obsolete on the battlefield. The speaker argues that there is still a vital role for armored vehicles in terms of firepower, protection, and speed. Another challenge is the tendency to dismiss or ignore weaknesses in the Ukrainian armed forces. It is important to objectively assess both successes and failures to learn and improve military performance.