The Briefing Room European defence in the new Trump era
Nov 14, 2024
Heather Conley, a senior advisor at the German Marshall Fund, Elisabeth Braw from the Atlantic Council, and Shashank Joshi, Defence Editor at The Economist, dive into the uncertainties of European defense post-Trump's victory. They explore NATO's challenges, especially the struggle for fair defense spending among member states. The conversation examines Trump's transactional approach and its impact on Europe’s military readiness, alongside the rising threats from Russia and the need for stronger alliances amid changing geopolitical landscapes.
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Trump's "Fair Share" Policy
- Donald Trump's consistent view, since the 1980s, has been that US allies exploit America's perceived weakness in defense and trade.
- He's the first president to explicitly threaten withdrawing from NATO if allies don't contribute their 'fair share'.
Managing Trump's Unpredictability
- European leaders tried various approaches to manage Trump, from Angela Merkel's principled stance to Macron's soft power tactics.
- However, Trump's unpredictability, including contradicting agreements on social media, posed a constant challenge.
Transactionalism vs. Isolationism
- Trump's approach blends transactionalism (seeking better deals through leverage) with isolationist tendencies (reducing US involvement in wars).
- While transactional by nature, his isolationism weakens the US by undermining the strength of its alliances.