Trump’s Second Term and Europe: Nationalism, NATO, and the Future of Transatlantic Relations
Feb 3, 2025
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Nathalie Tocci, Director of the Institute of International Affairs in Rome and professor at the European University Institute, discusses the potential implications of Donald Trump’s second term for Europe. She highlights how his nationalism and protectionism could embolden far-right movements, especially in Italy. The conversation dives into the evolving strategies of European leaders as they shift from panic to cautious planning regarding NATO and the war in Ukraine, all while navigating the turbulent waters of transatlantic relations.
Trump's second term may exacerbate transatlantic tensions through protectionism and a potential trade war with Europe.
The rise of far-right movements in Europe is accelerated by Trump's influence, risking the normalization of authoritarian ideologies in mainstream politics.
Deep dives
Trump's Second Administration and Its Implications for Europe
The new phase of Trump's administration exhibits a notable shift towards political coherence and a focused agenda, moving away from the chaos of his first term. Key elements from his previous term, such as protectionism and disdain for multilateralism, reemerge with increased determination, indicating a potential for new transatlantic tensions. This protectionist stance raises concerns about a possible trade war between the US and Europe, especially considering the current fragility of the euro, which may make it easier for Trump to exploit divisions within Europe. Additionally, the implications of Trump's foreign policy approach signal a challenging landscape for European diplomacy, where cooperation may become more complex as he seeks to redefine international alliances.
The Rise of Authoritarianism and Its Impact on European Politics
Trump's return to office presents an emboldening effect on authoritarian movements within Europe, coinciding with a resurgence of far-right politics across the continent. Unlike 2016, when his presidency fostered a liberal revival, the current political climate shows a significant portion of European governments leaning towards populism, making them increasingly susceptible to extremist ideologies. Leaders within the center-right are likely to feel pressured to align themselves with far-right sentiments, leading to a normalization of these ideologies in mainstream politics. This shift risks undermining democratic values in several European nations as their political landscape becomes more conducive to authoritarian influences, with Trump serving as a potential model for these movements.
Complexities of US Engagement in Ukraine and European Security
The podcast discusses multiple scenarios regarding US diplomacy in the ongoing war in Ukraine, emphasizing the uncertainty surrounding future engagements. One concern is that Trump's potential negotiations with Putin may not yield positive outcomes, potentially leading to prolonged conflict rather than a resolution. There’s a risk that negotiations might stall, allowing Russia to maintain pressure on Ukraine while Trump loses interest in the conflict, impacting US support for Ukraine significantly. The precarious situation underlines the necessity for a robust European presence to deter Russian aggression and ensure that the situation does not escalate further, highlighting the interlinked nature of US and European security interests in this geopolitical crisis.
In this episode of International Horizons, RBI director John Torpey interviews Nathalie Tocci, director of the Institute of International Affairs in Rome, about the implications of Donald Trump’s second administration for Europe. The discussion explores how Trump’s approach to foreign policy—characterized by protectionism, nationalism, and disdain for multilateralism—affects European politics, particularly in relation to NATO, trade, and the far-right’s growing influence. Prof. Tocci highlights how Trump’s return emboldens nationalist movements across the continent, especially in countries like Italy, where leaders such as Giorgia Meloni now feel freer to express their ideological stances. The conversation also examines the evolving European response to Trump, from initial panic to a mix of wishful thinking and cautious strategizing, particularly regarding the future of NATO and the war in Ukraine.