Know Your Risk Podcast Markets, Macro, and Geopolitics
Jan 15, 2026
Zach and Chase dissect the latest market trends, delving into oil price fluctuations linked to geopolitical tensions in Iran. They explore the potential decline in U.S. production and its impact on the oil market. The duo also examines Saudi influence over OPEC and how internal dynamics in Iran could affect regime stability. A broader macroeconomic view discusses the risks posed by warming economies on tech sectors and emphasizes the importance of diversifying investments amidst market concentration.
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Oil's Geopolitical Premium Just Rolled Off
- Oil dropped ~5% after the Iran escalation risk faded, removing the geopolitical premium from prices.
- That move exposed how much recent oil strength depended on conflict fears rather than fundamentals.
Markets Had Priced In Military Action
- The market had priced in military action against Iran, so the absence of strikes removed that premium and sent oil lower.
- U.S. production and broader supplies still matter, so oil could fall back without a production decline.
U.S. Production Could Flip Oil Outlook
- EIA expects U.S. production to start dropping, which could form a durable bottom in oil if realized.
- Multiple supply disruptions and OPEC policy make future oil direction highly uncertain.