Odd Lots Lots More on the Big Problem With the Monthly Jobs Report
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Sep 4, 2025 
Steven Englander, the Global Head of G10 FX Research and North America Strategy at Standard Chartered Bank, dives into the peculiarities of the current labor market. He discusses the low unemployment rate and the puzzling slowdown in job creation, pointing to the complexities in interpreting non-farm payroll data. Englander also examines bond market stress, especially in Europe, and the evolving role of immigration, demographics, and AI in the workforce. His insights highlight the challenges of translating data into effective policy.
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Birth‑Death Adjustment Masks True Job Gains
- The non-farm payroll (NFP) number mixes measured continuing-firm hires with a model-based birth-death adjustment for new/closed firms.
- That birth-death add-on has persistently contributed ~100,000 monthly jobs and likely biases headline NFP upward.
Census-Based QCEW Reveals Weak Firm Formation
- The QCEW business employment dynamics data cover the full universe of payrolls and show almost no job creation from new firms in 2024.
- That authoritative data implies NFP's modeled birth-death contribution is overstating recent hiring.
QCEW Is Far More Authoritative Than NFP Sample
- QCEW uses administrative unemployment-insurance records so it isn't a sample and is far more authoritative than NFP's sampled survey.
- Policymakers should lean on QCEW benchmarks because it limits sample and reporting biases.