A slow, global rebalancing away from the US dollar and Treasuries – Amundi CIO of fixed income Grégoire Pesques

“Existing investors are probably too long the dollar. They enjoy a very good ride. Valuations are expensive. It makes sense to take profit,” says Grégoire Pesques, CIO, global fixed income at Europe’s largest asset manager Amundi, in the latest Credit Exchange podcast with Lisa Lee.

The US, UK, many Eurozone countries, Japan – all have been spending profusely, causing deficits to be a big issue almost everywhere. Describing the fiscal and macro landscape, Pesques details where Amundi, with €2.2 trillion in AUM, is investing. He is buying UK Gilts because the market hasn’t priced in the possibility that growth may slow, and the Bank of England then cuts interest rates.

Germany is prepared to turn on the fiscal spending taps, yet will stay one of the safest countries in terms of debt-to-GDP ratios. “There will be a premium for the government that keeps some sort of orthodoxy and has a very strong balance sheet,” says Pesques. There are also pockets of emerging markets that are great investments right now, he adds.

There is a big need for diversification away from the dollar and away from Treasuries. But it will take “ages”, he notes, and the rebalancing will be progressive.

“It’s always better for a risk-adjusted return to have more diversification in your portfolio,” says Pesques.