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Trump's Cabinet and Ukraine War: Former President Trump is meeting with his cabinet to assess the direction of the Russia-Ukraine war and is frustrated by slow diplomatic progress. He feels things aren’t going the way he envisioned, despite some positive momentum compared to previous administrations.
Ukraine Minerals Deal Delays: A key issue is a delayed Ukraine minerals deal, initially meant to be signed in February. Although the agreement was reportedly finalized, Ukraine introduced last-minute changes, causing confusion. Critics argue the deal is being drawn out unnecessarily, and the economic viability of Ukrainian rare earth minerals is questionable due to a lack of processing infrastructure.
Russian Military Advances: Russia is making significant advances in eastern Ukraine, particularly in regions like Kharkiv and Sumy, with potential for future referendums to join Russia. Analysts predict more territory could fall under Russian control by summer.
Trump’s Role and Expectations: Trump is described as having unrealistic expectations for a peace deal and downplays his own administration's role in escalating tensions. From 2017 to 2021, Ukraine's military significantly expanded under his presidency, and U.S.-led NATO exercises increased.
Russia's Firm Stance: Russia, through Foreign Minister Lavrov, remains firm: any ceasefire requires full Ukrainian withdrawal from occupied regions, international recognition of annexed territories, demilitarization of Ukraine, and lifting of Western sanctions. These terms have remained consistent since the start of the war.
Outlook: Analysts believe Trump either misjudges Russia’s resolve or is setting up to withdraw from negotiations. Russia’s conditions are hardening with time, and without Western agreement, further territorial losses for Ukraine are likely.
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