Could the winter fuel cut cost more than it saves?
Sep 25, 2024
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The government’s push for pensioners to claim pension credit raises questions about potential costs. A new statistic on the transgender population has been downgraded, revealing issues with data reliability. Alarmingly, cancer rates are increasing among those under 50, though mortality rates are decreasing. The discussion shifts from serious health concerns to a playful math puzzle, inviting listeners to engage. Additionally, there are intriguing tales of unsung heroes from World War II, showcasing courage and covert contributions.
The government's winter fuel payment changes may result in more pensioners claiming credits, potentially exceeding the intended savings of £1.5 billion.
Flaws in the census question about transgender identification highlight the necessity for precise data collection methods in diverse populations.
Deep dives
Impact of Pension Credit Changes
The government has made significant changes to winter fuel payments, limiting eligibility to pensioners who claim pension credit. This shift is intended to save approximately £1.5 billion, yet it raises concerns that increased pension credit claims could negate those savings. Current estimates suggest that about 880,000 pensioners eligible for pension credit do not claim it, which, if they do start to claim, could dramatically increase costs. Analysis indicates that if around 480,000 additional pensioners claim, this could result in costs exceeding the intended savings of the winter fuel payment cuts.
Flawed Statistics on Transgender Populations
The Office for National Statistics officially reported that 0.54% of the population in England and Wales identified as transgender, equating to about 262,000 adults. However, this statistic was recently downgraded, revealing potential flaws in the census question due to language barriers, especially among non-English speakers. Sociologist Michael Biggs pointed out that higher reported rates in multicultural areas may stem from misunderstanding or misinterpretation of the question. Subsequent evidence from Scotland, where a different question format was used, showed a very similar national figure with significantly different localized results, highlighting the importance of precise data collection.
Increasing Cancer Rates Among Younger Adults
Cancer rates among individuals aged 25-49 have reportedly increased by 24% from 1995 to 2019, raising alarm among health professionals and the public. However, this statistic is contextualized by a significant drop in mortality rates for the same age group, which has decreased by 36% over the same period. Factors contributing to this discrepancy include better diagnoses and improvements in treatment options leading to higher survival rates. While a rise in certain cancers, such as colorectal cancer, is observed, overall mortality is declining, indicating advancements in healthcare rather than a straightforward public health crisis.
The government is encouraging pensioners to claim pension credit in order to remain eligible for winter fuel payments. Will people sign up - and might that end up costing the exchequer more than it saves?
The Office for National Statistics has downgraded the status of a new statistic aiming to measure how many people are transgender. What went wrong?
Cancer appears to be on the rise in people under 50. But are more people dying?
And try your hand at a puzzle you’re likely to get wrong.
Tim Harford investigates some of the numbers in the news.
Presenter: Tim Harford
Producers: Natasha Fernandes and Bethan Ashmead-Latham
Series producer: Tom Colls
Production co-ordinator: Katie Morrison
Sound mix: Sarah Hockley
Editor: Richard Vadon
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