EconTalk Adam Ozimek on the Power of Econometrics and Data
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Feb 8, 2016 Adam Ozimek, an economist at Moody's Analytics and blogger for Forbes, discusses the evolution of economic thought and the importance of empirical evidence. He highlights stories of economists changing their minds, emphasizing the impact of studies on trade, minimum wage, and fiscal stimulus. Ozimek explains the complexities behind public policies and the unique challenges of trade with low-skill countries. The conversation dives into how narratives and ideology influence economic views, calling for a balance between data and storytelling.
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Trade's Hidden Long-Term Costs
- David Autor, Dorn, and Hansen's micro evidence showed China's trade shocks caused long-lasting local job losses and welfare impacts.
- Adam Ozimek says this shifted his view that trade's adjustment costs are larger and more persistent than previously thought.
Theory And Casual Evidence Drive Pro-Trade Views
- Economists often defend free trade using theoretical constructs like comparative advantage and observed consumer benefits.
- Russ Roberts stresses that much of the pro-trade case rests on broad, causal stories and absence of microevidence to the contrary.
No Evidence Is Evidence Of Sorts
- Absence of microevidence refuting trade benefits strengthens the consensus in favor of trade.
- Adam Ozimek argues lack of contradicting evidence supports, indirectly, the pro-trade position.