ICYMI: After More Than Five Decades, Syria No Longer Under Authoritarian Rule
Dec 9, 2024
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Joyce Karam is a senior news editor at Al-Monitor specializing in the Syrian conflict, while Nanar Hawash is a senior analyst at the International Crisis Group focusing on Syria's political dynamics. They discuss Hayat Tahrir al-Sham's unexpected victory and the flight of Bashar al-Assad, marking a dramatic shift in power. The chaos brings both hope and uncertainty for Syria's future governance. The conversation dives into the roles of regional powers and the potential for a transformed HTS as it attempts to shed its extremist legacy.
Syria's transition away from decades of Assad's authoritarian rule marks a pivotal moment, evoking historical parallels and transforming the region's political landscape.
Hayat Tahrir al-Sham's rebranding and shift toward inclusive governance presents both opportunities and uncertainties for Syria's future political structure and stability.
Deep dives
The Swift Fall of Assad's Regime
The recent collapse of President Bashar al-Assad's regime marks a significant turning point for Syria and the Middle East as a whole. Islamist group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) rapidly took control of major cities, resulting in a virtually bloodless transition of power as government forces retreated and Assad fled the country seeking asylum in Moscow. This development is compared to historical events such as the Iranian Revolution and the fall of Saddam Hussein, indicating the momentous nature of the change. Citizens across Syria celebrated the end of an era characterized by oppressive rule, raising questions about the country's newfound freedom and political landscape.
The Role of HTS in Syria's Future
As HTS assumes a prominent position, its leader, Abu Muhammad al-Jolani, has worked to distance the group from its jihadist past, presenting a more inclusive governance plan for newly liberated areas. While HTS was once aligned with al-Qaeda, it has rebranded itself to gain acceptance among the Syrian population and has expressed intentions to dissolve itself in favor of a new, unified government. The group's current focus is on stabilizing the region and addressing the needs of all citizens, rather than solely pursuing its prior ideological objectives. The transformation of HTS raises questions about how it will negotiate power sharing and governance in a post-Assad Syria.
Geopolitical Implications and the Future of the Region
The collapse of Assad's regime has significant implications for regional players, particularly Iran and Israel. With Syria having been a crucial ally for Iran and a conduit for support to Hezbollah, Tehran faces a major setback as it loses influence over the Syrian landscape. Concurrently, Israel has seized the opportunity to establish a stronger foothold in the Golan Heights as it prepares for potential security challenges stemming from the regime's collapse. This shifting power dynamic invites uncertainty about the future, with many stakeholders—including the U.S.—now recalibrating their strategies in response to these unexpected developments.
On Sunday, Syrian rebels led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) made its final march on the Syrian capital of Damascus. The rebels had already claimed the major cities of Aleppo, Hama and Homs.
In a matter of hours and with little violence, Syrian government forces abandoned their posts and HTS claimed victory. Syrian President Bashar al-Assad fled the country and has been granted asylum in Russia.
After more than five decades, Syria is no longer under the rule of the Assad dynasty. And the region is transformed forever.
But as people rejoice across Syria – what's left is immense uncertainty about the future of the country's government and its place in the region.
We get to the latest and look to the future for both Syria and the Middle East.