Lawfare Archive: How Ukraine is Changing European Security
Mar 1, 2025
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Célia Belin, a Brookings fellow and former French foreign affairs official, and Constanze Stelzenmüller, a German security policy expert, dive into the seismic shifts in European security sparked by Russia's aggression in Ukraine. They discuss Germany's break from its historical pacifism, including increased defense spending and energy policy changes. The conversation also covers the EU and NATO's evolving strategies, the implications for European identity, and how Ukraine's crisis is reshaping regional alliances and future defense approaches.
Russia's invasion of Ukraine has fundamentally disrupted European security, prompting nations to reconsider both individual and collective defense strategies.
The conflict signifies a shift in the EU's approach, evolving from engagement with Russia to robust military support for Ukraine and stringent sanctions against Moscow.
Germany and France are reevaluating their defense policies, indicating a broader transformation in European military engagement and collaboration in response to new threats.
Deep dives
The Impact of the Ukraine War on European Security
Russia's invasion of Ukraine has fundamentally shaken the long-standing assumptions about European security. It has forced European nations to reconsider their national and collective security strategies in light of a direct military threat. For many Europeans, the shock of witnessing a nuclear power invade a neighboring country has underscored the real dangers of historical conflict returning to the continent. This radical shift in thinking emphasizes the urgent need for a revised security framework that addresses modern challenges posed by aggressive state actors.
Revising EU Policy in Response to Russian Aggression
The ongoing war has led to a reevaluation of the European Union's approach to Russia, moving away from a framework that previously focused on engagement and sanctions relief. European policymakers now view the conflict as a full-scale war rather than a crisis, which necessitates a shift to a strategy focused on robust support for Ukraine and severe sanctions against Russia. This change requires the EU to enhance its defenses, build energy resilience, and invest in military capabilities that reflect the seriousness of the situation. As a result, the effectiveness of prior EU strategies will need to be reassessed and adapted to this new geopolitical landscape.
Germany's Transformation in Security Policy
Germany's response to the war marks a significant turning point in its defense and security policy, moving away from a historically pacifist stance towards more proactive military engagement. Chancellor Olaf Scholz's government has pledged increased defense spending and the provision of lethal aid to Ukraine, which signifies a major shift in German policy. The cancellation of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline and the commitment to enhance NATO's eastern presence showcases not only a change in rhetoric but also concrete action in response to Russian aggression. This evolving stance reflects a broader recognition of the need for Germany to fortify its role in European security.
France's Strategic Shift in Foreign Policy
France is reassessing its approach to security and defense, particularly in light of President Macron's previously criticized framework for European security. The recognition of the urgent need for collective action against Russian threats has prompted a shift from bilateral dialogues with Russia to a more collaborative European defense posture. Macron's strategy now focuses on revitalizing NATO's presence and frameworks while simultaneously addressing Europe's strategic autonomy. This strategy aims to clarify Europe’s position regarding its security agenda and relations with its eastern neighbors amid the growing threat posed by Russia.
The Future of European Security Frameworks
The current conflict has highlighted disparities and challenges within Europe regarding security perspectives among different nations, especially within the EU and NATO. While a collective response is evident, historical differences based on geography, size, and political outlook remain significant. The war in Ukraine may compel nations to bolster military support and collaboration but it also raises questions about the long-term viability of European unity in defense matters. As different European countries grapple with their roles in this new security environment, the need for a cohesive strategy that accommodates the diverse views and capabilities within the EU will be paramount.
From March 14, 2022: Russia's war of aggression in Ukraine has undermined some of the fundamental assumptions underlying the security of Europe through much of the post-World War II era. As a result, several European nations have begun to consider dramatic changes in how they approach national security, both individually and collectively.
To better understand how the war in Ukraine is reshaping the European security order, Scott R. Anderson sat down with two of his colleagues from the Brookings Institution: Célia Belin, a visiting fellow at Brookings and a former official in the French Ministry of Foreign Affairs, and Constanze Stelzenmüller, the Fritz Stern Chair on Germany and trans-Atlantic Relations in the Center on the United States and Europe.
They discussed how the Ukraine conflict is reshaping Europe's approach to security affairs, what this means for institutions like the European Union and NATO, and how these changes are likely to impact the fundamental debate over what it means to be a part of Europe.
