Andrea Kendall-Taylor, a former intelligence official and expert on authoritarian regimes, teams up with Michael Kofman, an analyst known for his insights on the Ukraine conflict. They delve into Russia's military strategy and the implications for global politics as Ukraine faces increasing challenges. The duo discusses the resilience of the Russian economy under sanctions and Putin's enduring ambitions that may threaten Western interests beyond the current war. Their analysis paints a complex picture of the battlefield and the shifting political landscape.
Ukraine faces a precarious military situation with diminishing resources and skepticism about reversing the current momentum against Russian advancements.
The return of Donald Trump to the White House raises uncertainties around U.S. military aid and support for Ukraine amidst shifting political dynamics.
Russia's ongoing ambition to reshape the global order suggests that threats to Western interests will persist, regardless of the conflict outcome in Ukraine.
Deep dives
Current Battlefield Dynamics
Russia is steadily advancing on the battlefield, maintaining a prominent initiative and material advantage for over a year. The current battlefield situation suggests that while Russia faces significant costs in man and material, their ability to sustain incremental gains remains intact. Ukraine, on the other hand, is experiencing dwindling resources and military support, leading to increased skepticism about their capacity to reverse the momentum of the conflict. Key battles have shown that while Ukraine holds some positions, Russian forces continue to pressure the frontlines, exacerbating the precariousness of Ukraine’s military situation.
Impact of U.S. Politics on the Conflict
The political landscape in the U.S., particularly with Donald Trump's return to the White House, introduces uncertainties regarding military aid and support for Ukraine. Trump’s shifting rhetoric signals a potential shift in U.S. policy, creating anxiety among Ukraine's allies about the reliability of support against Russian aggression. Recent communications suggest that while Trump's administration may aim to increase leverage, the actual course of action will require tangible commitment and military aid for Ukraine. Without reinforcement of U.S. support, Ukraine’s negotiating position may further weaken, complicating the path towards a satisfactory resolution.
Long-term Threats Posed by Russia
Russia's ongoing military engagements and strategic positioning suggest that the threat to Western interests will remain significant, regardless of the outcome in Ukraine. Analysts argue that the Kremlin’s ambition to reshape the global order underlines a broader confrontation with the West that extends beyond the Ukrainian conflict. Putin's strategy appears rooted in imperial aims, aiming not only for territorial gains but also to undermine Ukraine's sovereignty and influence geopolitical dynamics. This entrenchment of conflict raises concerns about Russia's ability to leverage any post-conflict negotiations to its advantage, securing future concessions while positioning for further military maneuvers.
Russia's Adaptation to Economic Pressures
Despite severe sanctions and pressure from the West, the Russian economy has displayed unexpected resilience, enabling sustained military expenditures. High levels of military spending, supported by external actors like China, have allowed Russia to adapt to the economic strains imposed by sanctions, thus prolonging the conflict. Analysts suggest that while challenges exist, such as inflation and labor shortages, the Kremlin’s commitment to military funding underlines its readiness to maintain operations in Ukraine. This adaptation raises concerns about Russia's capacity to remain engaged in the conflict, potentially leading to future aggressions as they normalize their wartime footing.
Negotiation Challenges for Ukraine
The prospect of negotiations remains fraught for Ukraine, with a prevailing sentiment against making concessions to Russia after years of conflict. Publicly, there is a strong resolve to continue fighting, driven by the belief that yielding territory undermines the sacrifices made during the war. Simultaneously, fatigue and exhaustion within Ukrainian society are growing, complicating the political landscape regarding possible peace talks. The challenge lies in reconciling the desire for peace with the fundamental need to maintain Ukraine's sovereignty and territorial integrity in any eventual negotiations.
After nearly three years of war, the mood among many of Ukraine’s allies has turned grim. Russian forces are making steady gains; Kyiv is running low on ammunition; and the return of Donald Trump to the White House has only added to anxieties about the conflict, casting doubt over not only the future of American military aid, but also the prospect of a negotiated settlement that is satisfactory to Ukraine.
In an essay for Foreign Affairs, titled “Putin’s Point of No Return,” Andrea Kendall-Taylor and Michael Kofman argue that the risks are even greater—that Putin’s Russia will pose a threat to Western interests even if the current fighting in Ukraine ends. Kendall-Taylor is a former intelligence official and scholar of authoritarian regimes and Russian politics; Kofman is one of the most astute analysts of the war in Ukraine.
They speak with editor Dan Kurtz-Phelan about the battlefield dynamics and political dimensions of the conflict—and about Vladimir Putin’s enduring ambition to reshape the global order.
