Our Chief Korea and Taiwan Economist discusses the reforms needed to overcome Korea’s urgent demographic crisis.
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Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I’m Kathleen Oh, Morgan Stanley’s Chief Korea and Taiwan Economist. Today I’ll discuss what’s needed to overcome Korea’s aging population crisis.
It’s Tuesday, Oct 15th, at 4 PM in Hong Kong.
South Korea faces some of the world's most challenging demographics and will officially become a super-aged society next year – that’s more than 20 percent of the population 65 or older. The implications of this are so significant that the Korean government recently declared a national emergency, and we don’t think this is overstating the case.
Korea’s low fertility rate is the primary culprit. In 2023 it plummeted to the lowest level globally and currently sits at 0.72. For reference, the total fertility rate of 2.1 children per woman is what’s necessary to maintain a stable population in general. By next year, Korea’s population will start declining and is projected to shrink by a third over the next 40 years as the working population halves. At this pace, the Bank of Korea forecasts that Korea’s potential growth could enter negative territory by 2040, down from 2 per cent in [20]24-25.
So why does Korea have such a record-low fertility rate? In the short term, there are two key drivers: First, the declining number of marriages during the pandemic drove a rapid drop in births; having children out of wedlock is taboo in Korea. Once weddings resumed in 2022, Korea saw a slight but insufficient rebound in births.
Second, housing prices have gone up 80 per cent in the past decade, which has discouraged young couples from having families. Families with first children feeling extra financial burdens to have [a] second child. Beyond the short term, structural factors have also played a role. After a compressed period of rapid economic growth, Koreans feel uncertain about the employment conditions and housing outlook.
Tackling the low fertility rate has been on Korean policymakers’ agenda for the past 20 years. The government has invested more than $320 billion into solving the demographic challenge. And while these efforts have certainly raised awareness, they have yet to overcome the crisis. And why? Because Korea has not addressed the root causes of the problem -- income uncertainty, high childcare and education costs.
It’s clear what’s needed here are structural reforms and Korea is clearly taking important steps towards overcoming the issue by tackling the fundamental problems now. Policymakers are working to reshape the pension system for the first time in 15 years. They are focusing on measures around improving work-life balance, reducing the gender wage gap, and increasing support for working parents. They are also considering lowering barriers to immigration, which could help alleviate talent shortages. They are also working on reducing the cost of private education. And finally, the government is also focused on improving the country’s capital market infrastructure. They are aiming to attract foreign investment, as well as to help households secure [a] source of asset accumulation, and lower borrowing costs for domestic players.
Of course, it’s impossible to quickly reverse the downtrend and positive change will require multiple years - even decades. Korea’s government has set a medium-term goal of returning the fertility rate to 1.0 by 2030, which would delay working population decline by five years. And if the fertility rate reaches 2.1, that would delay the decline in the workforce by 20 years. Conversely, if Korea’s fertility rate remains at the current rate of 0.72, the population will halve by 2065 and the economy will start contracting in 2040, a worst-case scenario that the government is determined to avoid.
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