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Clauses & Controversies

Ep 23 ft. Lee Buchheit, Joyce Chang, and Jeromin Zettelmeyer

Dec 21, 2020
Debt expert Lee Buchheit, economist Joyce Chang, and contingent debt specialist Jeromin Zettelmeyer discuss GDP-linked bonds, the COVID codicil as a solution to debt relief, challenges of state contingent debt instruments, efficacy of value recovery instruments, bond clauses, IMF's role in debt restructuring, concerns about sovereign debt markets, and logistics of COVID-19 vaccine distribution in emerging markets.
01:02:54

Podcast summary created with Snipd AI

Quick takeaways

  • Emerging markets may experience additional sovereign debt restructurings, concentrated in specific countries, as a result of the economic downturn caused by the pandemic.
  • Uneven availability of vaccines in emerging markets and the logistical challenges of distribution pose significant concerns for these countries.

Deep dives

Concerns for 2021

As we enter 2021, there is a divergence within emerging markets, with North Asia faring better than Latin America. While a systemic sovereign debt crisis is not expected, there may be additional sovereign debt restructurings, albeit concentrated in specific countries. The logistical challenges of vaccine distribution and the uneven availability of vaccines in emerging markets are a significant concern. The potential for a prolonged economic downturn in developing countries, while the advanced world recovers, poses a risk of high interest rates that may exacerbate the challenges faced by emerging markets. Additionally, the lasting effects of the pandemic, such as a fear of social interaction and a slow return to pre-pandemic activities, may impact economic recovery. Small countries heavily reliant on tourism, like those in the Caribbean, face dire humanitarian crises as their main industries suffer.

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